Caution: This Had Better Not Be True
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-08-04 23:40
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Caution: This Had Better Not Be True
 

From twitter....

 by genesis

My understanding is that Larry later (on the air) said these were "rumors", although there is no later tweet I can find on the subject (there's only one in his timeline after this, and it has nothing to do with banks.)

Let's make sure we understand what's at stake here: If this is true then the ECB and Italy had better put a stop to it right now.  Like before Europe opens.  This means that if the "rumor" is false the banking authorities need to get on the air right now and refute it with hard facts, not platitudes and denials.

If there is a deposit run on Italian banks that is not immediately stemmed it will result in a severe and probably intractable liquidity crisis that will (1) shut down lending in Italy and (2) result in one or more of the involved banks blowing up as it goes under regulatory capital minimums - or worse, simply runs out of liquid funds period. 

The Euro zone has no meaningful way to deal with this.  Forbidding transfers out will simply make the panic worse in that it will confirm that the bank(s) involved can't cover withdrawals.  Doing nothing is unacceptable as well.  And if these institutions blow up, we're going to get a replay of Creditanstalt and all of its knock-on effects, right here, right now.

I do not normally reprint rumors at all, as they tend to be very destructive, but this is a special case because the risks, if the rumor is correct, are exceedingly high.  I'm sure you thought the 500 point loss on the DOW today was horrifying, never mind the 60 handles on the S&P 500 that came off and the 105 (!) on the Nadaq 100.

Here's a hint: Those are small numbers if a major bank in Italy blows up in an uncontained fashion.

I have no idea if this is real or not.  But we've seen, according to Bloomberg, $2 trillion come off stock market valuations in the last ten days. 

Ham-handed "interventions" have made the situation worse instead of better.  We're now sitting in an extreme oversold condition that unfortunately leave us with a binary outcome: Either a rip-your-face-off rally is imminent, or we're looking at an all-on collapse.  One policy mistake at this juncture, or even failure to provide a (reasonable and believable) answer to these sorts of rumors could trigger the collapse option.

If you have open positions tonight please be extremely careful.  As this goes out Asia in the toilet with several indices down more than 4% and the rest anywhere from around 2-3% negative.  CNBC tried to call this all "reactionary" to the selloff in Europe and the US today, but I'm not sold on that explanation and you shouldn't be either.

My personal confidence level in the leadership of all the nations involved, including the United States, is zero.  None of them have told the truth to their people since this crisis began in 2007.  Our Congress and President lied repeatedly over the debt issues, not just in the latest debate but going back to 2007 and before, all the way through Dick Cheney's "deficits don't matter" line.  Yes they do matter, although it is frequently true that the harm is not instantly apparent.

This much I do know - Europe's problems are no longer confined to the periphery and the "PIIGS"; the CAC was down nearly 4% today and the DAX 3.5%, with the FTSE off 3.4%.  This is now a pan-European problem and whatever is going to be done, if anything, it had better be put in place now or the market will continue to sell down price until exhaustion is reached which could easily be 10, 20 or even 30% lower from here, and that decline could literally come "all at once."

Note: This may have been responsible for the huge dump in the US market into the close.  The timing is approximately correct to have caused it.  That just makes the situation worse; if it was a malicious rumor passed around with the hope of it getting wide dissemination, well, it did.  On the other hand if it's true.....

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User Info Caution: This Had Better Not Be True in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bozonian
Posts: 19872
Incept: 2007-09-01
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Saratoga Springs, New York
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If Kudlow actually triggers a run, where does he stand legally?

Related article:
http://www.goldsilvermashup.com/zero-hed....

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.

Howardnyc
Posts: 132
Incept: 2007-11-01
Gold
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this is the 21st century. if stuff like this is happening, there will be more reliable reports than that senile lying pos krudlow, via a seven-hour old tweet.

off to the internets!

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kd told me (and i believe him) that
"We (Americans) deserve a Depression."
Mikek31
Posts: 4346
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Chicago
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Wow, an old-fashioned run on the bank(s), HFT-style. Will keep my eyes open for this. Somebody wake up Padrino...

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Mayorquimby
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I see nothing unusual in Euribor or with Italian bonds (although they are obviously up of late).

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Mayorquimby
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The Archaic Past
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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Raster
Posts: 2164
Incept: 2007-08-16
Green
Rar!
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Hey KD - Typo in p4:


Creditstalt = Creditanstalt

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"Bah something 'sploded"
- King Karl, Circa November 8, 2010 CE
Genesis
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Note: This may have been responsible for the huge dump in the US market into the close. The timing is approximately correct to have caused it. That just makes the situation worse; if it was a malicious rumor passed around with the hope of it getting wide dissemination, well, it did. On the other hand if it's true....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Cangaroo
Posts: 5
Incept: 2010-12-22

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If this turns out to be true, does the Tickercon go to 1, or straight to"Boom"?
Genek
Posts: 67
Incept: 2009-10-27
Gold
Richmond, VA
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Wonder what is the probability of a bidless market if Italy is done and wouldn't that create margin calls and liquidations for weeks.
Genesis
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There's no way we can avoid the blowback if an uncontained chain bank detonation happens in Europe.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Drench
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Italian prosecutors are investigating Moody's and S&P already. Maybe they'll just add Kudlow to the list.
Mikek31
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I'm trying to wrap my head around the money flows and how the market got so flushed today. I understand the BOJ intervention certainly left a ding, but still, a 500-point drop on relatively no news? Something else has to be going on. At first, the cynic in me thought somebody BIG got a whiff of nasty NFP data sooner than they should have. More likely though, something VERY BAD is going on in Europe...

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Genesis
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Even a negative NFP print wouldn't produce this. This is systemic risk - nothing was spared but banks and financially-related firms got it especially hard. It's coming from Europe - the flows made that obvious as did the FX.

Incidentally I expected it to come from there simply because they're a hell of a lot less transparent than we are, and everyone knows the tension is high there. I did NOT expect it to come this hard and fast, but it is what it is.

Trichet had better get his arms around the situation right here, right now. We go out tomorrow oversold like this and Monday could be repeat of October 1987. Yeah, the seasonality and options expiry is all wrong, but the oversold setup is exactly right. Dangerous ground here folks.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Genek
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Richmond, VA
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If there is a crash, is it a good idea to abandon positions like SH which I am holding for a intermediate term investment(1 to 3 months). Basically asking, if we get a 10% quick move down will that always mean a large long rally to follow(a long dead cat bounce)?
Mikek31
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Thanks KD.

All I know is that a Reuters reporter was literally in Trichet's face today asking him why he wasn't buying Italian debt (he admitted to buying Irish and Portuguese). Strange. Either in-fighting or not everybody's on the same page over there.

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Berkleyreindeer
Posts: 665
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Minneapolis , MN
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It's amazing banks haven't been forced at gunpoint to sign living wills. Then again, when the subordinate debt is primarily issued and held among the big banks, subordinate capital doesn't make anyone safer...and the big boys all know this.


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It'll get worse. Just wait.
Cluelessinfl
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Florida East Coast
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Bozonian wrote..
If Kudlow actually triggers a run, where does he stand legally?
Ask Chuckie Schumer.

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Land of the Free my ass.
Xrays
Posts: 9
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Genesis,

Why do you keep saying that this is oversold?

I think a big correction is long overdue.
Obsidian
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Eagle Mountain, Utah
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I can't remember where I read this earlier today. It might have been here or it might have been ZH. But supposedly Mutual Funds in general are down to an average of 3.4% cash, which is supposedly very low.

Assuming that those cash holdings are historically low, that makes them vulnerable to having to start selling if they get a lot of redemption requests.

After today (and the last week or so), I would suspect that a higher than usual number of investors are ready to pull the trigger, so to speak, and cash out to preserve their remaining capital.

The potential for a self-reinforcing sell-off seems to be in the cards. Add a trigger like a pre-market detonation in Europe, and tomorrow might become historic.


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232-Th + n --> 233-Th --> 233-Pa --> 233-U.
Trolling is a art.
Estadosundidos
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/44019988/comid/2#....

Italian Prosecutors Seize Documents from Moody's, S&P

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“A culture that does not grasp the vital interplay between morality and power, which mistakes management techniques for wisdom, and fails to understand that the measure of a civilization is its compassion, not its speed or ability to consume, condemns itself to death.” – Chris Hedges
Kylafoon
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Zombie Portal Lookout
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Italian Prosecutors busting on the ratings agencies
is right out of Southside Chicago.
Puhleeeze... If you want this **** taken care of,
run a flag up the pole of your favorite Sicilian.
Next morning the sun shines bright..

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"...But whenever we see things done wildly, but taken tamely, then the State is growing insane..." - Gilbert Keith Chesterton 1910

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008
Etz
Posts: 13888
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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Quote:
My personal confidence level in the leadership of all the nations involved, including the United States, is zero.

Absolutely.
Quote:

Italy’s debt of €1,900bn ($2,700bn) is nearly three times that of Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined.

Mr Berlusconi rejected suggestions that markets were responding badly to his speech to parliament on Wednesday, which contained no new initiatives to respond to the crisis and mostly blamed external factors for Italy’s problems.

The billionaire prime minister also took the opportunity to plug his three companies quoted on the Milan stock exchange, arguing that they were undervalued.

Quoting his father, Mr Berlusconi, 74, said markets “are like a broken watch, correct only two times a day”. His address to parliament, he added, was directed at assuring Italians that their bonds were safe “and should be kept in the drawer”.

In Milan, Federico Ghizzoni, chief executive of UniCredit, a bank that has lost some 30 per cent of its value in recent weeks, said he considered the widening spreads on Italian Treasury bonds to be “at quite abnormal levels that are not linked to the fundamentals of Italy”.

His view is shared by other senior bankers who point to Italy’s less than 5 per cent deficit, a primary budget surplus and the absence of a property or financial bubble.

Bankers saw Mr Berlusconi’s speech to parliament as weak and insufficient. Italy appears set to suffer further from a lack of leadership, especially as Mr Tremonti has been weakened by a corruption scandal involving a former aide and by policy disagreements with the prime minister.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/68ddfd80-bea4-11....


A bit of history
Quote:
In 2001, academic Gustavo Piga identified the case of an unnamed European country, that everyone assumed was Italy, using derivatives to provide window dressing to meet its obligations under the European Union (EU) Maastricht treaty. There were accusations and counter accusations. The report vanished from the International Securities Market Association (ISMA) web site.

It appeared that in December 1996, Italy used a currency swap against an existing Yen 200 billion bond ($1.6 billion) to lock in profits from the depreciation of the Yen. The swap was done at off-market rates with Italy setting the exchange rate for the swap at the May 1995 level rather than the rate at the time of entering the contract.

Under the swap, Italy paid a rate of dollar LIBOR minus 16.77% reflecting the large foreign exchange gain built into the contract for the counterparty. Given that LIBOR rates were around 5.00%, the interest rate paid by Italy was negative. In effect, the swap was really a loan where Italy had accepted an off-market unfavourable exchange rate and received cash in return.

The payments were used to reduce Italy’s deficit helping it meet the budget deficit targets of less than 3% of GDP (gross domestic product). Between 1996 and 1997, Italy had cut its budget deficit from 6.7% to 2.7% to meet the EU target. The suspicion was that, well, it hadn’t exactly cut the deficit but, among other things, it had used derivatives to provide window dressing. There were suspicions that other EU countries also used similar structures to fiddle their books to meet the Maastricht criteria.

http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas....



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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Jstanley01
Posts: 8171
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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inline
Left to Right: The Greenspan PUT, the Bernanke PUT

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Azusgm
Posts: 2388
Incept: 2010-12-02
Green
East Texas
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So...who are the CDS holders and who are the counterparties? How deeply involved are our TBTFs?

On another note, we may be coming up on another Lehman moment of our own.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/got-bank-a....

Stay safe.

BTW, the euro and the yen are really duking it out.

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