Ten Things Update: 2011
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-06-10 11:44
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Ten Things Update: 2011
 

If you haven't read my previous "Ten Things" Ticker, do so.

If you think that Bernanke, Obama and the rest have "fixed" the economy or the banking system, stop reading now and check into the nearest mental institution for evaluation.  I'm quite serious about this; given what we now know about securitized mortgages, debt in Greece and elsewhere along with 12% of GDP being literally borrowed up and spent by the government to cover up what should have been a Depression you are badly addicted to Hopium and your head has not seen daylight in two years.

So with that and the "Ten Things" Ticker as a backdrop, let's update it.

  • You should be out of any floating-rate debt, and to the extent possible, be out of fixed-rate debt.  If you're not, it may be too late to prevent the worst sort of damage that could come.  If you have done this, congratulations.  Under no circumstance should you be adding to debt obligations at this time, with one exception: extremely low-interest and fixed rate debt that you are absolutely certain you can repay, even if your income is interrupted.  This has particular application for young people who are considering going to college and taking debt to do so.  This is a very dangerous proposition; read my previous Tickers on this subject and ask the hard questions - this debt is not only unable to be discharged in bankruptcy but at the present time young people doing this are the only suckers left in the market adding to their debt among consumers.  In short, our youth are being played.  Don't be one of the suckers!

  • You should have been saving 10% of your gross income and have two years of this available to you; that translates into at least 4 months of your current gross income.  Note that taxes are paid on this, so you really have at least six months of living expenses.  Anything in "investments" does not count; these must be liquid assets - that is, cash.  Now, distribute this through various instruments and places so you cannot lose access to it even in the event of "bad" things happening.

  • GET AWAY FROM THE TBTF INSTITUTIONS!  They're not only "too big to fail" they're also too big to save this time around.  Local credit unions are ok to a point, but look at their balance sheets.  Where's the money?  Even if you're under FDIC limits, be "more under" by distributing funds around.

  • If you have re-entered the stock market and made money, determine where your exit points are and be damn sure you're comfortable with the risk.  As I write this we're nearly 100 SPX points off the recent and multi-year highs.  Again, if you believe that the problems that led the market to tag 666 on the SPX were fixed, stop reading now; this article is not for you.  If, on the other hand, you do not believe this, consider what happens to that money if the SPX goes to 400 - because it both can and might.

  • Be prepared to "shelter in place" or "bug out" as appropriate.  "Wilding" events have already happened in some major cities.  This is likely to spread if there is a "fiscal" or "monetary" accident and the "FSA" (free **** army) funds get cut off.  These events could spread very quickly, and many large cities could go near-feral within days.  You need to know what you're going to do about that if it happens.  If you think it can't, you're wrong - it both can and might.  Being prepared costs nothing.  Being unprepared might cost you your life.  Consider walking down the average city street with 10-story apartment buildings on both sides while carrying a bag of groceries.  How many rifle barrels can be hidden behind those windows, pointed at your head?  Now consider what happens when the residents in those places have no food, no money, and you've got a bag of groceries.  Still comfortable walking down that street?  That's what I thought.  Incidentally, being "macho" (or even armed to the teeth) does you absolutely no good in such a situation; the only means of avoiding that problem is not being there if it happens.

  • You already have the lawful means of self-defense, right?  If not, there's still time to solve that problem, but remember: The means of lawful self-defense does not automatically confer skill in the use of same.  The police exist to come take a report and zip you into a bag under normal circumstances.  If the "wildings" get more-prevalent they may dispense with the report and shift to Hefty for the bag.  Think about that long and hard folks; it's not hyperbole. 

  • Once again look at who your friends are - and aren't.  Many who you think are "friends" are really "acquaintances."  They're fine when things are good and ok to share a beer with, but trusting them with your life is another matter.   Again, this is "no foolin'" stuff - take stock of those who are in your circle and make changes as required.

  • Remember the first rules from Zombieland.  No, not "double tap."  CardioIf you're a couch potato you need to fix this right now.  Google up "Couch to 5k" if you need a way to get started.  If you can't jog a couple of miles non-stop you're not in acceptable physical shape.  The simple fact of the matter is that most of us are "sedentary" in our work nowdays and I'm willing to bet that 75% of those over 30 could not jog one ten-minute mile if it became necessary.  Well, if things get dicey and you have only your feet at that instant in time to reach safety with the question becomes this: Are you going to make it or have a heart attack?  One mile is simply not that far and fixing this problem can be done in eight weeks with nothing more than a pair of running shoes and 20 minutes three times a week.  Do it, and do it now.  This is not just about outrunning a bad situation; it's also about reducing your risk of dying when, not if, the "medical safety net" you're accustomed to today disappears.  I believe it will.  As such a minimum level of physical fitness is no longer optional unless you would like to make a date with St. Peter.

  • Wanna be short in the market right now? Ok.  But just remember my "golden rule" when it comes to these things: You cannot win a bet on the end of the world.  You're either wrong and lose your money or you're right and can't collect your winnings.  Therefore, discipline is key.  Giddiness is way, way out of control right now in the markets, with virtually everyone thinking that "The Fed will save us all."  Uh huh.  How's that worked out so far with unemployment, prices on commodities such as oil and similar?  The fact is this: The Fed not only has a horrifyingly bad record historically (e.g. "Subprime is contained") but in addition has done nothing to address the excess systemic leverage and has instead papered it over.  A bet on this continuing is, in my view, foolish.  Rather ominously a number of funds that track high-yield debt have started to roll over badly.  This is not being talked about, and by the time it is, it will be too late.  The first rule of investing is "don't lose your money"; all others (including "look at how much I can make!") come after that first one - never in front of it.

  • Do not count on entitlements of any sort.  Whether you're retired or not, figure out how you'll make it without them.  I'm completely serious about this, even though I know it's well outside of consensus.  The simple fact of the matter is that the United States is more than $100 trillion in the hole when one looks at the discounted future value of entitlement promises.  The money doesn't exist and can't be made to exist.  These entitlements on a forward basis will not be paid.  If you're 80, you'll probably not lose access to them during your remaining years.  If you're 65, or worse in your 50s or younger, it's an entirely different matter.  Again: Do not count on these political promises, no matter how much you believe you can force them to be provided through the political process.  When the money is gone, it's gone.

 

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User Info Ten Things Update: 2011 in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
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Hmmm. Are we approaching Tickercon 1 again?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Workerbee
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* Winter is Coming *
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Wondering that very thing myself.

If so, will the open free gold status for all continue, or will there be a lock-out?

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Corn1945
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Keeping your money in separate banks is definitely a good idea. Stay as far under the FDIC limit as you can.
Tdray
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Looking at "the Rules of Zombieland" step, I noticed that couch to 5k takes about 8 weeks. A person that starts today would be at 5k around the time of the debt ceiling funding "disaster" in early August. Are you telling us something? ;)

Genesis
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Tdray: Maybe. smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Tdray
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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/german-....

That and the Barofsky interview cast a pall.
Tylerd
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Queue the horses...
Raftermanfmj
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As luck would have it, yesterday I decided to start training for the Drake Well Marathon; Ran Pittsburgh and Erie in 2009.

Decided I'm going to be a barefoot runner and hit the trail with no shoes. A 3 miler on soft unconditioned feet was not a good distance to start with. Blister city.

Also coincidentally I just got off the 'chat help' with Trowe about 10 AM and requested the paperwork on a 50K loan from my 401k. Should be here Monday. The chat rep noted she was getting many requests for loan info...

I get the feeling we are on the beach, and strangely, the water is beginning to recede from the shore. Those who know what this means are either warning others, or running like hell. Those who haven't a clue continue with the mixed drinks and games of volleyball.

Good luck all!

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I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Stemmit
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Not to argue with Gen but to argue that although 'If you can't jog a couple of miles non-stop you're not in acceptable physical shape.' works for many, I beleive strongly that brisk walking is better for transport and fitness for many. Running/jogging is much tougher on knees and other body parts, and I beleive that walking is better cardiovasular 'excersize' than running, certainly there are fewer MI's. Dr. Stemmit suggests changing zombieland recommendation of 'jogging' to 'jogging or brisk walking'.

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The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will execute great v
Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
Not to argue with Gen but to argue that although 'If you can't jog a couple of miles non-stop you're not in acceptable physical shape.' works for many, I beleive strongly that brisk walking is better for transport and fitness for many. Running/jogging is much tougher on knees and other body parts, and I beleive that walking is better cardiovasular 'excersize' than running, certainly there are fewer MI's. Dr. Stemmit suggests changing zombieland recommendation of 'jogging' to 'jogging or brisk walking'.


I believe most people have knee problems when jogging because they are overweight; the added stress of impact from more weight is not linear. You might have to lose weight before you begin running and just walk for now.

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I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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Barofsky interview? Can someone link it?

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Mpilar
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Stem, I've heard that as well, but mankind hasn't survived for this long by "walking briskly" after their food. I wonder how much of the knee problems, etc, are more to do with body weight/general condition than that it's not 'good for us'...or that walking is better. Not trying to argue, but have recently started to get back in better physical shape (diet, "100pushups", "100situps", etc) and running is next on the list and I'm honestly curious.

edit: aditionally, thanks for posting this Gen! It serves as a good reminder to take stock of where we're at.

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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken

Mobi
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Karl,

I totally agree with you and I just started jogging around my house yesterday!

I do not have any sort of debt/mortgage and am almost 100% in cash. My only dilemma is: since I am renting right now, is it really a good idea to live in a rental when TSHTF? If say, I buy a house w/ cash, I won't have enough saving for 4-6 months. So, I still need a mortgage. I am struggling between renting, buying w/ cash, and buying w/ a mortgage. Any good idea?
Genesis
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Stem, the point is that if TSHTF you may not have the choice of the brisk walk or jog. You either CAN perform the latter (or an even-more-vigorous event, such as a 440 sprint) or you're ****ED.

The goal is to have a cardio fitness level that will permit this level of exertion if required without having the aforementioned MI. If that level of exertion is going to cause a MI then you "lose" in the situation where you need to get the **** out of there "right now."

A 10-minute pace is not very fast; not much beyond a "brisk walk" at all. Getting to where you can do it can take quite a while if you're badly out of shape; there's no time like now to do it, as reducing the risk of a MI event if there's a material dislocation in the provision of medical services is something that literally could prevent you being "dead right now."

Right now, sure, either is fine and good. My point is simply that being able to perform at the latter level may well turn into a life-or-death situation if things get bad, and therefore it seems to be a reasonable minimum level of cardio fitness that one should effort toward achieving.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Crzymorse
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I hear there is a survivors colony in Vermont...
Reepotomac
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Don't let your gas tank ever get less than half full.
Asimov
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Quote:
Not to argue with Gen but to argue that although 'If you can't jog a couple of miles non-stop you're not in acceptable physical shape.' works for many, I beleive strongly that brisk walking is better for transport and fitness for many. Running/jogging is much tougher on knees and other body parts, and I beleive that walking is better cardiovasular 'excersize' than running, certainly there are fewer MI's. Dr. Stemmit suggests changing zombieland recommendation of 'jogging' to 'jogging or brisk walking'.


Karl wrote..
I'm willing to bet that 75% of those over 30 could not jog one ten-minute mile if it became necessary.


A 10 minute mile isn't much more than a brisk walk.

[Edit: I see karl already pointed this out.]

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If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

Fraudster
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Gen - Big picture though, the medical system is going to fail so getting in shape is crucial regardless walk vs. jog. Incidentally, what will happen to military pensions?

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
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Military pensions are, in the grand scheme of things, small and they won't be the first thing that gets sacrificed. Washington will get trapped but they're not stupid; the odds of*****ed ex-military people going Rambo .vs. ordinary "FSA" people going "Rambette" is dramatically different in terms of the harm that could occur.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Solffegio
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Need to finish up on my truck tank like the ones the Mexican drug cartels are making! I only lack the gun turret. Pretty much have everything else completed.

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Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair. ~Sam Ewing

O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper,
Which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.~Lord Byron
Mpilar
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We're about to spend a large chunk of our 6 month savings to have 6 acres cleared from heavily wooded to bare pasture with no stumps. It will probably take just under 3 months to recoup that savings...think we have enough time? smiley

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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Brushyourteeth
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Yeah, I'd say you had better get your one mile down to under 8 minutes, but even that is still a jogging pace.

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"The only stance they've (our world leaders) ever known is to bend over in the shower!"
Steelpiston71
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"A 10 minute mile isn't much more than a brisk walk." You guys must have some long legs!

"The average human walking speed is 3 mph or approximately 120 steps per minute."

"While human jogging speed also depends on factors like height, weight, gender, and jogging surface, the consensus is that at 6 mph you are sprinting or jogging."

Racewalkers can go 5 to 6 mph I iirc.

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"We have resolution authority under Frank/Dodd... How about we USE IT?" Karl Denninger, 10/07/10 on the Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC.
Genesis
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Brush, if you can do two or three miles at a 10 minute pace without feeling like you're going to die you can PROBABLY do one mile in 8 minutes if you NEED to, and a 440 Sprint without collapsing, again, if you NEED to.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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