The Implications of OPEC's Failed Meeting
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-06-08 11:50
by Karl Denninger
in Energy
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The Implications of OPEC's Failed Meeting
 

For thirty years Saudi Arabia was able to do two things:

  • Have their Kings and Princes sucked off by successive administrations in the United States.

  • In return, control the amount and thus price of oil on the world market.

That ended today.

The implications of this were a short term immediate spike in the price of oil, as a lot of people were short and expecting Saudi Arabia to "announce" (after twisting everyone's arm) that production would go up.

But this short-term reaction, while important, isn't the big problem.  The big problem is that OPEC has been neutered, and the US Government's effective "back door" control over OPEC's production via bribery and mutual fellatio with the Saudi Royal Family has, at least temporarily, ended.

Cartel behavior is, over the long term, inherently unstable.  The reason for this is the fact that eventually someone finds a good business reason to defect from the cartel and by doing so gains a competitive advantage.  It is thus only with some sort of enforcement mechanism that cartel behavior can be maintained for any length of time.  We did it with 30 years of "support" for Saudi Arabia, officially and otherwise.

Today, that hegemony and control has been cracked.  Exactly how badly that crack propagates, and whether it turns into an outright rupture remains to be seen.  But this much is certain: The world as it existed in the oil markets up until this morning is different now than it was a few hours ago.

It will be a while before we discern whether this will lead to higher or lower world oil prices.  There['s a solid argument for both directions, with the "Peak Oilers" claiming that Saudi and others can't increase production while the free market folks will of course look at freedom of individual action as leading to lower prices.  You could give me either position to argue in a debate and I could easily do it.

But this much is certain: The world is changing, and our control over the actions of OPEC via Saudi Arabia is waning, if it hasn't completely collapsed this morning.  And if the latter is the case the implications go far beyond the price of a barrel of oil, as Saudi Arabia is a brutally repressive nation that has utterly depended on the United States for much of its technology and political stability.

A storm is coming my friends...... and it's a bad one.

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User Info The Implications of OPEC's Failed Meeting in forum [Market-Ticker]
Soar07
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Peak Oil is here.....

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Time to put the USA first! Stop Globalization, Illegal Immigration, Outsourcing. Buy American. Enforce the rule of law. Drop kick political correctness!
Fraudster
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Is that a bullish pennant on crude?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Coaster
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Maine
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ykqtgGjW....

The failure to agree is a major repudiation of Saudi Arabia's leadership position in OPEC. It's also a big boost for Iran, which holds OPEC's presidency this year.

Also, Russian production is down 5 percent y-on-y.

Storm coming indeed.
Digitlman
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Peak Bull**** is here.
Soar07
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On ZH: YeeHa! love this comment!



by That Peak Oil Guy
on Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:31
#1350711

Exxon discovers 9 days worth of oil in Gulf of Mex!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/exxon-d....


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Time to put the USA first! Stop Globalization, Illegal Immigration, Outsourcing. Buy American. Enforce the rule of law. Drop kick political correctness!
Joejohns
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Our support of Israel is the key to cartel actions. It was what was played by the Saudi along with a few of their friends to rally them to OPEC.

This while the Saudi support "their" brand of terrorists thugs to try to keep the fires burning everywhere else.

This in turn gave the U.S. the "right" to support thugs to stem the terror tide.

Same old game and on it goes.


The only question is who is the next target for SHOCK AND AWE(shucks).

Fraudster
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Some argue that the Saudi support of oil priced in dollars is a large part of the reason why the U$D is the world's reserve currency. If Saudi influence erodes, what effect does this have on the dollar intermediate to long term?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Captbill
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POTUS said,
Quote:
Energy prices would have to necessarily skyrocket.



How'd that work out for you Mr. President?

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Incredible. There's Smith and he's standing there and he's got the iceberg warning in his ****ing hand, excuse me, his hand, and he's ordering more speed. Lewis Bodine, RMS Titanic
Joejohns
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Your MIL is the support of the dollah. Don't be a child.
Frat
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What actually happened at the meeting?

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Eli
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Try and print into this, Ben and Obozo.

Good ****ing luck.

This is now a very healthy daily spike, and this is going to absolutely corn hole every one of us.

My bet is that peak oil is here and there is not a damn thing to do about it.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Corn1945
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Chris Martenson covered Saudi Arabia's various claims of production increases. Every single one over the last year or so has been a lie. It's becoming increasingly obvious they cannot increase production.
Genesis
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Don't confuse can't and won't.

If you have something people want, do you want higher prices or lower prices?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Dashingdwl
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From zerohedge
US Representative Markey says US must prepare to use strategic petroleum reserve after OPEC refusal to boost supply.

Tell me, is demand that high that we cannot keep up with the demand for oil? I'm confused.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Fraudster
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Gen don't forget that Saudi Arabia recently revised their reserves downwards significantly. It may very well be "can't".

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Corn1945
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Are they able to increase their production rates above current production rates? I think the answer is no. OPEC members have a very substantial financial incentive to overstate reserves so they can up their yearly production quotas.

I think "stated reserves" is the next big fraud to be uncovered. They were probably lying for years.
Eli
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I don't think anyone is confusing that at all.

They have been milking Gwahar for a long time and it has been the bulk of their spare capacity. And pumping a lot o salt water in there which is never a good sign.

Is it a certainty that they are out of spare capacity? No

But the evidence suggests that they are, that is my bet any way.




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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Genesis
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I don't believe anything that comes out of a cartel that has no transparency on their claims.

We've heard the "out of oil" mantra for a literal 30 years, yet we manage to keep pumping more. Well, if it's all gone, how'd that happen?

Yeah, I know, there's a curve to it, and this is a rock of finite size. I get that. But there are a trillion reasons to lie about what you have to suit circumstances, and as such I'm a skeptic on all sides of this debate.

This is one of the reasons that I support a transition in our nation to LFTRs and coal liquifaction. We know how much of that we have, and we can develop a known price for it. With that we know where the market is.

The key is not so much the absolute price, it's the risk of big moves that you can't reasonably adjust and plan for.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Redwolf
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Our control of Saudi Arabia ended the day we supported the over throw of Mubarak of Egypt. No middle eastern power would be "friends" with us after that. In a year or so Egypt will execute Mubarak and every former friend of America in that region will be our enemy. Hell look at what we did to Libya and they were only slightly our friends. The people we leave alone are our enemies such Syria, Iran, and Pakistan. The Saudi's have taken the correct lesson from this and are courting a replacement for the US.
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Fair arguments Gen but be careful not to use the rear view mirror while driving foward.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Mikeit83
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OPEC doesnt want to lower the price for the following reasons.

1. The price of the dollar has collapsed. That 100$ barrel of oil today was what- 75$ a year ago? Why would they??

2. It is very well known they dont like Obama. They wont let him suck their dick. They are mad at him for his foreign policy.

Vernonb
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No increase in oil output. The pipes are running dry. We are past the era of peak oil and the Arab nations know it. Their capacity to sell is coupled against the total reserve in the country. In the past if you wanted to sell more barrels of oil all you had to do was claim an increase in your reserves. The lies are finally catching up and the middle east will soon be dry.

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"The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience.”
-Alber Camus (1913-1960)
Mikeit83
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Another topic that I dont think anyone else has broached- is why America may not be willing to drill their oil yet.

Once the Middle East runs out of oil- and China and Russia start running dry- we still have a lot of ours untouched. When they run dry, we may be the next Saudi Arabia.... or at least be able to use our oil to defend ourselves.

But my only counter to that is why we are letting China drill on our near shore installations.
Mo
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I think this is a hit-back at Obama for abandoning Mubarak. The Saudis ordered O to tell Israel '1967 borders, or else'. Then they butt-****ed him today, just as they had planned. And just as he did Mubarak.

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