The Game Is Afoot (AMZN)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-22 10:31
by Karl Denninger
in Technology
Ignore this thread
The Game Is Afoot (AMZN)
 

Looks like the rumors are true....

Put a fork in Netflix - they're

smiley

Here's the problem: You get more than the streaming (which incidentally I counted up at ~1,300 movies alone on Amazon this morning - all of which I can look at the titles of before choosing to buy the PRIME membership) plus you get 2-day shipping included on anything you buy from Amazon.

PRIME membership price isn't changing - this is just another "fringe" benefit.  And it will stream to a huge number of devices - arguably more than Netflix covers.

For PRIME members, they just lost all reason to have a Netflix subscription.  That's going to hurt - a lot.  And for non-members, you're now paying $6.58/month, or less than Netflix is charging, for the streaming video service and the two-day shipping on Amazon purchases is included at no cost.

That's how consumers are going to see it.

Redbox (CSTR) has announced intent to offer a similar service.

The race to the bottom in margins is now in full-force in this space.  The entirety of the business model for Netflix and everyone else in terms of being able to make money on these offerings, and the valuations in their stock prices, was entirely reliant on that not happening.  Add to this the pressures that will come from the CDN and ISP side and you got trouble. 

Now look at the deferred expense issues with Netflix and what I see is big trouble.

Unfortunately this doesn't make Amazon a buy.  When a market becomes filled with people who are willing to undercut one another by 30-50% to make the sale you've moved from a growth model to one of cannibalization.  This is not where M&A occurs (which will be what the crooners will try to SELL you), it's where the sharks start eating each other, having insufficient food available to sate themselves by other means.

Stay away from all of these companies - this is a highly-destructive cycle that is likely to lead to severe margin compression for all of these firms.  If I had to bet on someone surviving this it would be Amazon, with Redbox/Coinstar and Netflix being the potential zeros - but even so, it's going to hurt Amazon's margins as well.

Nobody wins these wars - if you have positions in these companies get the hell out of them while the getting is good.

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User Info The Game Is Afoot (AMZN) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Wearedoomed
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No disclosure?

Oh, and NFLX -> smiley <- AMZN

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Matt_bear
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Ok, I understand this makes Amazon prime a tremendous value now. Especially so if you're a current netflix user.

However....doesn't this expose Amazon to all the internet traffic problems you've been hammering away and saying will ultimately be the death of netflix?

By your viewpoint, hasn't Amazon just "entered the ring" to take on Comcast?

I think in the short run Netflix is ok because they've associated themselves pretty well with Playstation and Xbox. They also score points for being the 1st and currently top player.

I agree though from a longer term perspective. This is going to be like XM vs. Sirius but in half the time (or quicker). One of the players (netflix, redbox, blockbuster express, and now amazon) [is going] to die. No ifs ands or buts.

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In terms of real-world fundamentals, I expect that most of the people around me, whom I work with day to day, and whom I pass on the street ... will be dead within five years.
Grf
Posts: 1337
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And it will work on Linux. Goodbye Netflix!

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"Every time we on TF talk about God and gays, God frees a banker and gives him a bonus." --me
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Blackswan
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I think I will cancel my Dish buy a MLB package to watch the Phillies (got check prices) and Amazon to watch the few TV shows worth using up your TV's screen life.

I see NutFlux is down 3.8% ish.


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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
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Genesis
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Quote:
However....doesn't this expose Amazon to all the internet traffic problems you've been hammering away and saying will ultimately be the death of netflix?

By your viewpoint, hasn't Amazon just "entered the ring" to take on Comcast?

Yep.

They're all ****ed. This is going to hammer ALL of their margins, including Amazon.

They'll lose to the ISPs who have pricing power and, by the way, with Republicans in office you can forget Net Neutrality too.

Get away from ALL of these stocks. There are no safe plays here and this radically ****s with the valuation models for all of these firms.

Game's over.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Otiswild
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Amazon buys Coinstar? Or would that nexus-ize them?

Not everyone will be able to afford broadband soon enough :p

(BTW, B&N membership gets you 10% off and free 'overnight' shipping and is about 1/3 the price of AMZN Prime, though it covers only books and discs AFAIK)

Matt_bear
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What about Amazon and Netflix partnering up for the fight?


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In terms of real-world fundamentals, I expect that most of the people around me, whom I work with day to day, and whom I pass on the street ... will be dead within five years.
Quillbill
Posts: 1469
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Green
Northwest Illinois
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Good call Gen.

But the 60 quadrillion dollar question.....can I get it on my Wii? Is there an APP for that. I have Netflix on everything.

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It is a new day....DO SOMETHING WITH IT!
Mouthofthesouth
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lee county al
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Must be those plunging consumer confidence numbers! LOL!
Bigsapper
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Silver
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Been a Amazon Prime member for years. Off to check it out...
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
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Banned
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SO...time to short NFLX?
Phaedrus
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Des Moines, WA
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Good Stuff, Karl. Many Thanks!
3600
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Michigan
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NFLX = AOL

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you're good at stealing and you're good at lying now lets see how good you're at flying... jump you ****ers....Gene Burnett
Etz
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No Wii streaming. Yet.

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Themortgagedude
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Sparticle - time to short NFLX? Friday at the close maybe?

Netflix, Inc.(NasdaqGS: NFLX )
Real Time 225.00 10.51 (4.46%) 11:15AM EST

Last Trade: 225.56
Trade Time: 11:00AM EST
Change: 9.95 (4.22%)
Prev Close: 235.51
Open: 225.71
Bid: 225.56 x 200
Ask: 225.78 x 100
1y Target Est: 211.85
Day's Range: 222.09 - 229.41
52wk Range: 63.10 - 247.55
Volume: 3,178,832
Avg Vol (3m): 5,816,420
Market Cap: 11.91B
P/E (ttm): 76.20
EPS (ttm): 2.96
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

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Themortgagedude
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Wow are those some expensive puts????

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Tennesseetrader
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Actually the selection for "Prime eligible" movies is rather restrictive. New videos are pretty much not included.
Genesis
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New movies are not included on Netflix streaming either. DVD only.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Beignet
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what about Blue Ray?

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Notalent
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Yeah that is one of my problems with Netflix now, it takes so long to get the new movies because of the agreement with the movie houses to wait a month before renting new releases. Streaming takes even longer
Drrichardva
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I'm a prime customer. I took a look at the offering. It is a joke - this is a very limited selection - almost all of which are titles that don't rent or sell many copies -- gems like the Bruce Willis flop "Hudson Hawk" or Arnold's forgettable "The Last Action Hero" or a couple of John Wayne's marginal movies from the 1930s. There was nothing worth watching...
Mobi
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NY State
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I went on Amazon to check their selections. OK but not great. It won't make all the Netflix users to unscribe tomorrow. That being said, I will go enjoying my freebie and watch the fight and hopefully Amazon will up their selection from now on.
Mobi
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I won't say it's a joke but definitely not the best selection in the world. Let's wait and hope Amazon takes it up.
Genesis
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OF course they will.

The problem is that Netflix's MOVIE list for streaming sucks.

So does Amazon's, but there were actually more films I want to watch on Amazon's streaming than Netflix's. And unlike Netflix I can see the list before I buy.

I'm not a PRIME user as I don't buy enough on Spamazon to make it worth it. But for those who are.... oh boy.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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