WARNING: Bogus Accounting Identical To 2007!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-01-12 11:56
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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WARNING: Bogus Accounting Identical To 2007!
 

I shouldn't be surprised, but I am.  The banks are doing exactly the same thing that blew them up in 2007 and 2008, and it will end the same way. 

What am I talking about?

Booking non-existent income that will NEVER be realized.

The giant US banks have been bailed out again from huge potential writeoffs by loosey-goosey accounting accepted by the accounting profession and the regulators.

They are allowed to accrue interest on non-performing mortgages ” until the actual foreclosure takes place, which on average takes about 16 months.

All the phantom interest that is not actually collected is booked as income until the actual act of foreclosure. As a resullt, many bank financial statements actually look much better than they actually are. At foreclosure all the phantom income comes off gthe books of the banks.

Do you remember why I started writing The Ticker?

It was over this exact issue.  Bogus and intentionally-misleading accounting by the banks that was "accepted practice" - specifically, I caught Washington Mutual (which has since failed) paying dividends with non-existent money - they were paying those dividends out of capitalized interest on Option ARM loans - money they had no reasonable expectation of ever collecting and which in fact they never did collect.

On 4/18/2007 I wrote one of many Tickers over the months to come that explained why this was destined to blow up in their face and destroy them.  It did.  It also destroyed Wachovia, Countrywide, Downey Savings and Loan and many other banks.

They're doing it again folks - we have in fact learned and changed nothing.  The banks are counting as "income" money they have not actually received and never will as the loan that is "accruing interest" is in default and will eventually foreclose!

This has to be stopped and the phantom "income" must be forced out of their books or we will have another explosion exactly like we had in 2008.

We argue only over when, not what.

I'm warning you all right now - a mere four years after the first time they did it and I caught them at it, they're doing it again and it will lead to exactly the same outcome.

It has to, because the mathematics on it are exactly identical to what happened the last time.

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User Info WARNING: Bogus Accounting Identical To 2007! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mayorquimby
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The Archaic Past
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Why would they do something so absurd? What do they expect to happen when time runs out?

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Tesla
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State of Disbelief
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...wish I could say I'm surprised. Had to show profit to pay those year-end bonuses.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Anti
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5% of 1.4T is $70B phoney profits per year.

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Genesis
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... that is then dissipated and in point of fact is charged against capital.

In a year or two, all the banks are again not only formally insolvent they're functionally insolvent too.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
No1ninja
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To actually change means admitting you were insolvent a few years ago. At this point it is safe to assume that this is being done with the government’s full awareness. They are in this together, they are bankrupt, and they need to hold on tight to each other to maintain their power.

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Capeman
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But I thought the banks successfully lobbied Congress to change the laws of mathematics back in 2008...

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Joejohns
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The banks are were and always will be insolvent as they operate today.

Mayorquimby
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If they know in sixteen months they have to report a loss, they have to be planning on something filling that gap. Either that or they know they are insolvent and are just personally robbing the system.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Ktrosper
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Gen wrote..
...we have in fact learned and changed nothing.


We've learned that fraudulent book-keeping is not only allowed, but rewarded in the form of "TBTF" designations that bring the promise of bailouts when the ponzi topples over ...

We've learned that bank executives get bonused out year after year. The bigger the fraudulent numbers the bigger the bonuses...

We've learned that the American tax-payer gets to be the bag-holder when this fraudulent book-keeping blows up.

We've learned a lot actually.



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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Helluvaengineer
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Unfortunately this doesn't matter as long as Bernanke is shoveling enough cash through the back door for them to keep the lights on, which of course will go on forever.
Lucky1
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Quote:

"All the phantom interest that is not actually collected is booked as income until the actual act of foreclosure. As a resullt, many bank financial statements actually look much better than they actually are. At foreclosure all the phantom income comes off gthe (sic) books of the banks."

Um...not quite. Actually, that phantom income will *never* come off the books of the banks, Mr. Silly Forbes Writer...that income was booked, reported, CNBS pump-monkeyed, bonused and dividended...when the the write-off *does* eventually come, it will be 'below the line' as an extraordinary item, never to be seen in either 'operating' or 'reported' earnings.

Or better yet, the whole mess of fraudclosures simply transferred to a "Bad Bank" and reported as 'Loss from Discontinued Operations', or 'sold to you' in yet another as yet unannounced, semi-secret Federal Reserve program...

Oh sure, it's still just as much capital destruction as ever, but who actually reads balance sheets, anyway?

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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)

Reason: missed a spot
No1ninja
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It's for the good of the recovery. We can't really afford to lower conusmer conffidence, so if printing money is not doing it, the next step is to fudge the books. "We are trying to help you out, Obama"


I have been reading these tickers for a couple of years now. I think its foolish to believe that your government wants to fix this. This is not fixable, at this stage they are too complicit in this crap. Your admin is tied to this goose.


Both the government, and the banks need to fail in order for you guys to get your house in order. They know this, so they are watching each others backs.

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Mortgageguymn
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Didn't Dodd-Frank fix this?
Genesis
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smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Radcondive
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Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome. Sound familiar, or is the fix already in....uh, nevermind, answered my own question.
Dashingdwl
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Rally on!

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Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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Just interest karl or also the late fees and penalties? This might explain why they are being so slow to foreclose.


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Otiswild
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Oh be fair, I'm sure Enron's (and Arthur Andersen's) accountants needed to find jobs SOMEWHERE..

smiley
Genesis
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86: Both.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Lowbeyond
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Who cares. Its different this time! The bernank has our backs !

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Genesis
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He had 'em in '07 too. Remember August's discount-rate cut?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Starvingartist
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So what happens if they cannot legally foreclose at all? When is this phantom income and interest coming home to roost?

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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Yeah I guessed both. With the property held at mark to myth I would think every foreclosure results in:

1 - write down on accrued interest and fees never paid
2 - Foreclosure fees (legal, filing, processing, selling agent, etc)
3 - Difference between the sale price on the home and the recorded book value.

I'd love to see how big this normally is on a average loan. May guess is you're looking at a 50% loss on a 100k home. Maybe a lower percentage loss on higher priced homes as the 2 would be the same but still huge numbers.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Tman2
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Sub-prime is contained.

Ben Bernanke...2007
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