Check Please! (Fraud Always Has To Be Paid)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-12-02 11:53
by Karl Denninger
in States
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Check Please! (Fraud Always Has To Be Paid)
 

You may get away with scamming for a while, but you never get away with it forever.

Chicago officials mounted a strong attack Wednesday against legislation that would require the city to dramatically increase the amount of money it puts toward the retirement of its police and firefighters.

That's because Chicago has been perennially underfunding that pension plan, and the longer they can keep lying about it the better they can make things look in the short term.

Unfortunately just as with the national debt and adjustment necessary to cover it Chicago has dug itself a monstrous hole.

How bad?

"The reality is that this change would mean a property tax increase of at least $550 million for Chicago property taxpayers — or a nearly 60 percent increase," Saffold said. "This would be a staggering blow to property taxpayers. This would, in fact, be the largest property tax increase in the city's history."

Got it folks?

Lying for years has now built in a sixty percent increase in taxes that will have to come eventually.

Can you put it off for a while?  Sure, with more fraud.

But does that change anything?  No, it does not.  It will in fact only make the eventual increase worse.

Keep lying to yourself America...... right up until you're thrown out of your house because you can't pay your property taxes.

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User Info Check Please! (Fraud Always Has To Be Paid) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Gillianx
Posts: 65
Incept: 2010-01-07

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Why not continue the charade? It most definitely is working.
You know the saying: if it ain't broke...
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
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If somebody owns property in Chicago and wants to sell before taxes go up there comes a time when it becomes too late to escape the tax because potential buyers start factoring that in.
Jtmo3
Posts: 679
Incept: 2009-07-31

Missouri
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This will continue as long as other countries allow it by continuing to use the us dollar as the world reserve currency. Until that ends, this **** will continue.
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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Taxes will kill the housing market in Chicago. Try and sell now that people know taxes are ramping in Chicago. What about section 8 rents(gov supported housing rebates) in Chicago, will they increase if rates go up in Chicago?


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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Blackswan
Posts: 5562
Incept: 2007-11-06
Gold
Just outside of Philly
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60% ? Maybe they can phase that in? 59% this year and 1 - 2% next year.

When the markets blow up that won't help the pension shortfall either.


I am lucky. My real estate taxes are only going up 16%. (outside Philly)




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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
Hamilchr
Posts: 63
Incept: 2009-02-28

Portland, OR
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I think this is what general public doesn't understand...how much $ has been pulled forward and spent over the past 2 or 3 decades to ramp GDP, ramp asset prices, ramp tax revenues while maintaining low fed tax rates.

Only trouble is we are now running into the air pocket where all those borrowed funds at muni, state, fed, corporate levels should be. The fraud is now exposed as we are forced to double, triple down attempting to pull ridiculous amounts of tax revenues from further and further ahead in the future to cover the holes.

Classic ponzi inflection moment muddled by the Fed's ability to "create" money to cover all liabilities (really, seems all liabilities worldwide due to the interconnectivity of the financial system)...oh but the side effects are like those of Chemo and the treatments success likelihood seems low due to cancer has metatasized and moved throughout the system. This is typically when a hospice worker would be called in but instead the Fed (at the behest of?) will stop at nothing to keep the patient "alive"...even if the brain function has ceased.

One post note - taxing and spending vs. not taxing and spending to cover this will both have similiar negative GDP effects. Please don't think that by not taxing GDP will be free to rise. You must consider that the other side of those unraised taxes are huge swaths of our population (some good, yeah, some sloths) who plan on this future income. Without it, they will not be travelling, not be buying new cars, will downsize or rent their home, and the least will eat dog food instead of human food. I am not advocating tax / not tax but simply pointing out the end effect is much lower GDP growth either way...the check is coming and isn't good for anybody.

Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Green

Banned
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A lot of big cities are only standing because of accounting games.

No way would I be in one or buy into one now, no way.

You are going to get killed.

Yep, there's a gap to fill alright...........

Grashopa
Posts: 2609
Incept: 2009-02-03
Green
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"What about section 8 rents"

Someone on section 8 pays what they can 'afford' and the government pays the rest. So the increases don't affect the section 8er.

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Theft is evil
Rdgdawg
Posts: 165
Incept: 2010-04-30

WI... but no brats or cheese...
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So a couple points that confuse me- with housing/banks blowing up and the gov't taking them into receivership, if a house note is created out of nothing and collateralized by nothing, will the gov't ultimately say (as a new "bailout"), "Okay, you that managed to do whatever it took to keep your house note and property taxes current, you get a pass, you own it free and clear (and your equity will be the "new" market value ie losing another 20%) as of today. No more payments due. Those of you who defauleted, sorry, you're SOL. AND all future purchases (cars, homes, etc.) will carry a 50% deposit if you wanna finance. Enjoy" as the final solution? As long as I pay my property taxes, is there a futue in home ownership? Or are these new property taxes going to be the "evictor" for the "common man"?

Second- if the banks are about to blow, why not drain my 401Ks, IRA, retirement money NOW and convert to gold or whatever? How can I be penalized for early withdrawl if pensions are already being raided? Want me to pay a penalty... why not talk to my attorney? Want me to pay, go garnish my wages... wait if you're raiding my 401k, isn't the gov't already doing that? I don't see how I can penalized for taking what's mine NOW when it is and will be raided and taken later....

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I work hard because millions on welfare depend on me!

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8846
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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Taxes are already high in Cook County - some of the highest in the country. Good luck with that Chicago. Lets assume that Chicago City has lower taxes than I am used to seeing for other Cook County deals. A $400,000 condo that now would have taxes of 10,000 a year would then go up to $16,000 a year. Most all of this will be reflected in what someone will pay to buy that condo. Say 80% of the tax increase. Well at 5% interest rates on 30 years that condo just became worth $75,000 less. Good luck with this. We are so ****ed.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
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Time to list the amount of those individual pensions. That will get a lot of tax payers*****ed off as they see were that money is going.

http://www.pensionjackpot.com

Victorberry
Posts: 155
Incept: 2010-01-12

Bedford, TX
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Come on now! Sure, a 60% increase is not good but it's not the same as a 60% property tax rate. Below are some Chicago numbers that need to be verified. In the first example, a 60% increase would be about $350/month more in property taxes and the second example would be about $115/month more. I wouldn't like it one bit, but I don't think I'd walk away from my house because of it ... at least not right away.

Estimate of real estate property taxes paid for housing units in 2008:

This zip code: 4.0% ($6,440)
Illinois: 2.6% ($2,285)

Median real estate property taxes paid for housing units with mortgages in 2008 in Chicago: $2,982 (1.0%)
Median real estate property taxes paid for housing units with no mortgage in 2008 in Chicago: $2,253 (0.9%)

http://www.city-data.com/zips/60610.html
Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Green

Banned
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The problem is that the 60% increase is not the last one.

these things are still to come and QUICK in a lot of places.

gvt layoffs
pension cutbacks
long long term high unemployment
rollover demand through the roof and if rates even inch up you are doomed
flight from cities increasing - will happen - people only came for the jobs
housing falling
more tax/fee increases on property city services gas ,etc. etc.

No thanks I will pass.

Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
Incept: 2008-10-13
Green
Arizona via California
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That's a real shame because the real estate market in Chicago has recently been ON FIRE! Things are really moving there, at any price the seller asks! Oh, wait a minute, that was 2006. There is not a deader market in the country than cook county - no one can/will sell - basically, there is no real estate market in Chicago, so don't worry, higher taxes won't impact the market since there is no market!

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Captainkidd
Posts: 594
Incept: 2010-05-25
Silver
Pasadena, Texas
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Quote:
Come on now! Sure, a 60% increase is not good but it's not the same as a 60% property tax rate. Below are some Chicago numbers that need to be verified. In the first example, a 60% increase would be about $350/month more in property taxes and the second example would be about $115/month more. I wouldn't like it one bit, but I don't think I'd walk away from my house because of it ... at least not right away.

You might not walk away from your home because of a $350/Month payment increase, and a lot of others on this forum might not, but I would venture a guess that 75% of the people in Chicago can not afford a $350/month increase in their house payment.

Assuming you are talking about a home at or around median value, I would think that a $350/month across the board increase in house payments would create another foreclosure boon in the Chicago Land area.

I'm pretty sure it would here in the Dallas area.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Jocknomore
Posts: 184
Incept: 2009-01-03

Chicago
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I am currently appraising a 26,363 sq.ft. shopping center in a Cook County suburb of Chicago. 2009 R.E. taxes payable 2010....$225,473.29 or $8.55/sq.ft. annually. Those tenants must love their NNN leases! This is a $30,000 increase over 2008 paid 2009, or $1.13/sq.ft. more for each tenant to pay

Reason: cuz
Popothebright
Posts: 2756
Incept: 2008-05-16
Green
Bangkok
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But won't the Federal govt just nationalize these pension plans and take them off Chicago's books?

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In America the choice of political party is little more than a choice of which corrupt management team implements the corporate agenda.
Docberg
Posts: 161
Incept: 2009-02-20

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Chicago is probably hoping to extract the needed funds from the rest of this hapless state. That is why they pulled out all the stops and the dead votes to keep a conservative Downstater out of the governor's office this past election.
Nevertoolate
Posts: 1219
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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Detroit 2.0

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"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
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Good thing there is no inflation per Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes.

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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