Monetize + Deficits = KABOOM
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-11-15 15:35
by Karl Denninger
in Bonds
Ignore this thread
Monetize + Deficits = KABOOM
 

Gee, you think?

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Clearly, an extension of the tax cuts that had been implemented by the Bush administration in 2001 and 2003 “is not good” from a deficit/debt perspective, but such a measure, if temporary, would not immediately jeopardize the U.S. sovereign rating,” Moody’s lead analyst for the United States told Market News International Monday.

He cautioned, however, that, “A permanent extension of the tax cuts would be a definite negative.”

Oh, so you mean Ben can't just buy debt and make it all ok with printed money?

Gee, who'd a thunk?

Reality: Congress has blown a huge bubble in government spending - nearly 40% compared to GDP growth over the last decade.

Reality: It has to come back out, or taxes must go up by 40%.

Reality: Trying to raise taxes by that amount will trash investment, especially if rates are kept low.  That will in turn trash GDP.

REALITY: There is no way to get out of this box without accepting the pain and the bankruptcies that have already happened but are being papered over.

WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT FOLKS.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info Monetize + Deficits = KABOOM in forum [Market-Ticker]
Hamilchr
Posts: 63
Incept: 2009-02-28

Portland, OR
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Is Bernanke obligated to carry through w/ QE2 and balance sheet maintenance given that the Fed has outlined and committed to it's plan at the last FOMC? Does Fed have the flexibility to suspend QE2 or would they need to take measures to "sterilize" w/ repo's on other side of purchases?

Seems unlikely they would back off now (of their own accord and be thoroughly, completely discredited as incompetent) but not even sure if it is possible?

Mikeri
Posts: 270
Incept: 2007-10-04
Green
Natchez, MS
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What a great trading mkt. Whowee. On the legal side. The outlaws got away Sheriff. Way to much reasonable doubt, with the Fed, BIS and Accounting rules. Those who keep pointing to dep testimony about fraud as establishing facts make a massively wrong assumption. They know not the difference between the "burden of production" and the "burden of persuation". This testimony only helps the prosecution get to the defense case in chief. And now: it's time for the other side. Oh Oh. Now we have a fact question. What would a jury decide?
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10315
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
When the Banks issued Money at the Origination of Mortgage Loans where did the Money come from?

When the FED bought MBS where id the Money come from?

Why are Home Buyers and Taxpayers paying Money to People and Institutions that Counterfeited/Conjured Money into existence to Buy these 'Debts'?

----------
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Ssg263
Posts: 392
Incept: 2009-01-07
Green
NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
but....but...DEFLATION!!! it's the boogyman!
Tinsu
Posts: 43
Incept: 2009-09-18

New Lenox, IL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
There is no way that I am going to take a single cut in my municipal pay, or life, health, dental and vision benefits. I pay no more then ten bucks out of my pocket for a claim. I'm not paying any more. Plus, I get a salary boost to $110,000 for the next few years so I can lock in a pension of $85,000 annually for life. Can't wait to enjoy it when I walk out of here at age 58. To bad, chumps. You can all pay more taxes to cover my costs!

...... Acutally, I have none of this. But, I was out canoing with two buddies. One a retired teacher (age: 58) and fireman who is in his last two years of work. This was their reply when I talked about the "real world."

I can tell you they have no idea how broke the state of Illinois is.

Genesis
Posts: 130678
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
My reply has been this:

"It's easier to change the State Constitution - or simply allow everyone in the state to EAT YOU - than it is to conjure up all this money that you were promised but doesn't exist."

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Green
Montana
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Why would they, Tinsu? After all, one has to be able to sleep at night.

----------
I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
Gator
Posts: 728
Incept: 2009-04-09
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:

Acutally, I have none of this.


Actually, they don't either. They just don't know it yet.
Sparkylab
Posts: 521
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green
Pacific Northwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Actually, they don't either. They just don't know it yet."

BINGO! (Also, very nicely put)

My take on when things start to really unravel: when they start to figure it out.


----------
'The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.' -Winston Churchill

'Audit the bastards.' - Richard Russell
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The current governor (re-elected) of IL. will just go along with the union demands and raise taxes. Cook county is just shoving all their increased pension costs and benefits to the tax payers (property and sales). Until there is a tax revolt those elected in IL will just keep doing what they have been doing for the past decades.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Bagbalm
Posts: 4251
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tinsu your buddies are the fat kid with the conch. (Lord of the Flies)
Blackswan
Posts: 5562
Incept: 2007-11-06
Gold
Just outside of Philly
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tinsu - Keep us updated how that works out for your buddies.

I like the delusional talk of budget cuts that people think will put a dent on the debt tsunami curling over our straw huts. This is like throwing feathers at an oncoming locomotive.

It is going to hurt best to get on with it.




----------
“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
Smacktle
Posts: 1358
Incept: 2009-01-20
Green
Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I usually like KABOOMS! Not so sure about this one.

----------
The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Bdr
Posts: 9
Incept: 2008-08-31

florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Illinois?
How about florida. The scam state. They beef up the hours per week with overtime 2 years before retirement (20 years) then retire off the last two years earnings.
THAT'S of course if an injury is NOT suffered on the job. If injury occurs,
no income taxes paid, injury compensation, and medical for life.
You can find all these people on the many luxury golf courses in Florida
rehabing their injuries. It's nice... I can see all of them while I'm driving
from job to job so I can pay fair share in taxes.
I hate to tell them, while they're having so much fun,
but the party's almost over


Reason: spelling
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bdr,

I know of another public employee that talks about going on disability until retirement. It's common. The public employees know they can keep asking for more and more taxes. Guess the tax paying public isn't outraged yet.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
No1ninja
Posts: 2054
Incept: 2009-08-19
Green
Mississauga, Canada
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Let me ask you this folks. That 7 trillion that went to bail out the banks. Was that a collective agreement of some sort? Did you know years ahead of time that these jokers were going to come to you for that money, and agreed to it with foresight?


Because when it comes to the teachers and others, you did know about this for a long long time, and did nothing about it. Then you let the banks get ahead in the line and take it as one lump payment, and that is when you turned on your unions.


So this is the aspect of this I do not get. Are we going to fight for the nickels and dimes that we are withholding amongst us? While the real crooks whose pockets are stuffed with bills are egging the fight on?


I think 85K is a crazy pension, but you guys routinely pay for pensions much higher in the private sector without protest. The services are overpriced in such a way that employees get millions in bonuses, but as long as it is private and not public, we say "all the power to them"!


Yet now we are seeing, that these private bonuses and compensations are hurting our economy and jobs at those firms much more than a government pension.


I say before a teacher or a firefighter must forgo their pensions, so must a banker forgo his bonuses retroactivly. If that stipulation is made, maybe the bankers may actually become targets.


----------
http://www.wikileaks.fi/cablegate.html (alternative mirror #2)

Jamesbond
Posts: 589
Incept: 2009-01-31


Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Monetize + Deficits = BANANA REPUBLIC

My fear is that once monetization starts, it will never stop until there's a total collapse.
Eli
Posts: 7169
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Jamesbond

It always does, without exception. Taleb has an interview where he talks about how life was in Lebanon as they started to monetize, they always start out by saying it is just temporary and then it just never stops.

----------
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Bdr
Posts: 9
Incept: 2008-08-31

florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No 1

Yes, I understand what you're saying. I'd like to shut them all out.
The banksters got half of my 401 now the unions/state want the other, however
my concern is here at home. The banks and the unions worked the scam together.
Am I wrong in saying that Union greed led to risky behavior and made the Banks more creative? It's the chicken and the egg. Supplying money is the real root cause of all of this. Had the retirement and bennies policy been more carefully
constructed this wouldn't have happened...right?

Peterm99
Posts: 4981
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No1ninja -

One point you are missing is that until the gov't (and Fed) took action to bail out the banksters with public money, most thought that paying the banksters' bonuses was something that one could avoid by choosing not to do business with them and/or the entities that were involved with them, e.g., buy their stock or not, deal with large ins cos. or not, use their credit cards or not, etc.

The obscenity of public employee compensation is extracted from people involuntarily, essentially at the point of a gun. Further, until people started to get angry at gov't bailouts, etc., the egregiousness of the public employee compensation practices were not generally known.

Given that the quantities of taxpayer funds involved in public employee compensation requirements is also in the hundreds of billions, it is entirely justified to target both the bankster extortion/theft and the politician/public employee extortion/theft.

----------
". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Reason: fixed formatting
Wawawa
Posts: 249
Incept: 2009-03-18

San Diego, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Will BB able to continue his monetization IF the bond market reacts negatively as it is indicated today? Will BB continue?

----------
RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :)
Asdqwe
Posts: 132
Incept: 2010-06-18


Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
That's my fear. Is the Fed and Treasury already too deep into this. What would all the boyz do with their bonds that they frontran the Fed with? Rush the door?
No1ninja
Posts: 2054
Incept: 2009-08-19
Green
Mississauga, Canada
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Someone in the administration could of also replied like this to the Fed:

"What? You want us to have low interest rates? How can we do that when we have signed commitments that we will be paying out set pensions? If you lower the rates you will bankrupt the government"


...and this mess would have been prevented. Not that they wouldn't of found another way to **** the tax payer.



Seems to me that the FED requires someone like Bernanke, not because he is smart or wise, but because he is good under pressure. Imagine how you the public would react to a chairman that was sweating under pressure, displaying a nervous twitch? Then you would know he is robbing you.

You see you the public, don't care about what comes out of his mouth, you never did, you only look at his body language.

"What did he say dad?"

"Oh, its complicated. These are complicated matters son, our economy is a complex thing. Its too much for you and me to understand, what is important is that he looks competent saying it"



(what comes out of his mouth, translated, is "this is a stickup")

----------
http://www.wikileaks.fi/cablegate.html (alternative mirror #2)

Jamesbond
Posts: 589
Incept: 2009-01-31


Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Wawawa wrote..
Will BB able to continue his monetization IF the bond market reacts negatively as it is indicated today? Will BB continue?


What if Banana Ben has no choice but to monetize? What if he's been stealthily monetizing since 2009, but, because of Obama's massive deficits and the lack of foreign purchasers of Treasuries, he's now forced to publicly monetize the deficits? If Banana Ben is monetizing out of desperation and as a last resort, then it will be KABOOM soon enough.

smiley

Reason: Ben Bernanke
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last