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| To Ireland: Grow A Pair in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Steelhead23
Posts: 2041
Incept: 2008-09-09
Portland OR
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Not to be too contrarian - but what is the difference between defaulting on debt you cannot pay - and refinancing debt you cannot pay? Now, an Irish sovereign bond likely pays a higher yield than a ECB bond, but if you are not going to pay, I fail to see the difference. What is the ECB asking for as collateral? The Blarney Stone?
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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
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Blackswan
Posts: 5563
Incept: 2007-11-06
Just outside of Philly
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Curse of the Irish?
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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
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Quillbill
Posts: 1469
Incept: 2009-06-23
Northwest Illinois
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I am beginning to wonder just how much you have to saddle on to the people of a country before the outcome is a pitchfork. From what I know of the Irish it probably would be less than amount you mention Gen.
This is a defining moment for the Emerald Isle. I hope they stick to their heritage and do not sell out.
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It is a new day....DO SOMETHING WITH IT!
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Throxxofvron
Posts: 10322
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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It isn't a Bail-out of Ireland that is desired by the German and French Banks: it is a Bailout of the Bondholders of this defaulting/defaulted Debt. The Irish Government is being pressured to literally SELL OFF the Irish Citizenry's Future Wealth Production to pay the Bills of a Failed Oligarchy. Tanks in the Streets of Dublin is not so far fetched, Karl; France did exactly that to Germany in order to extract the 'War Reparations' granted to the French Bankers in the Treaty of Versailles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupation_....Quote:By late 1922, the German defaults on payments had grown so serious and regular that a crisis engulfed the Reparations Commission as the French and Belgian delegates urging the seizure of the Ruhr as a way of encouraging the Germans to make more effort to pay, and the British delegate urging a lowering of the payments.[1]
As a consequence of an enormous German default on timber deliveries in December 1922, the Reparations Commission declared Germany in default, which led to the Franco-Belgian occupation of the Ruhr in January 1923.[2]
Particularly galling to the French was that the timber quota which the Germans had defaulted was based on a German assessment of their capacity to deliver and then had subsequently been lowered from below the German assessment.[3]
There was little doubt among the Allies that the government of Chancellor Wilhelm Cuno had defaulted on the timber deliveries deliberately.[3]
Providing more fuel for the fire was a German default on coal deliveries in early January 1923, which was the thirty-fourth coal default in the last thirty-six months.[4]
The French Premier Raymond Poincaré was deeply reluctant to order the Ruhr occupation and took this step only after the British had rejected his proposals for more moderate sanctions against Germany.[5]
Frustrated at Germany's unwillingness to pay reparations, Poincaré hoped for joint Anglo-French economic sanctions against Germany in 1922 and opposed military action.
However by December 1922 he was faced with Anglo-American-German opposition and saw coal for French steel production and money for reconstructing the devastated industrial areas draining away.
Poincaré was exasperated with British failure to act, and wrote to the French ambassador in London:
French Chasseurs Alpins in Buer
"Judging others by themselves, the English, who are blinded by their loyalty, have always thought that the Germans did not abide by their pledges inscribed in the Versailles Treaty because they had not frankly agreed to them. ... We, on the contrary, believe that if Germany, far from making the slightest effort to carry out the treaty of peace, has always tried to escape her obligations, it is because until now she has not been convinced of her defeat. ... We are also certain that Germany, as a nation, resigns herself to keep her pledged word only under the impact of necessity".[6]
Poincaré decided to occupy the Ruhr in 11 January 1923 to extract the reparations himself.
The real issue during the Ruhrkampf (Ruhr struggle) in 1923 as the Germans labelled the battle against the French occupation was not the German defaults on coal and timber deliveries but the sanctity of the Versailles treaty.[7]
Poincaré often argued to the British that if the Germans could get away with defying Versailles in regards to the reparations, then a precedent would be created, and inevitably the Germans would later proceed to dismantle the rest of the Versailles treaty.[8]
Finally, Poincaré argued that once the chains that had bound Germany in Versailles had been destroyed, then it was inevitable that Germany would once more plunge the world back into another world war.[8]
Initiated by French Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré, the invasion took place on January 11, 1923, with the aim of occupying the centre of German coal, iron and steel production in the Ruhr area valley, in order to gain the money that Germany owed.
France had the iron ore and Germany had the coal. Each state wished to obtain free access to the resource it was short of, as together both resources had far more value than each resource valued separately.
(Eventually this problem was resolved in the European Coal and Steel community.)
Following France's decision to invade the Ruhr[9], the Inter-Allied Mission for Control of Factories and Mines [M.I.C.U.M.][10] was set up as a means of ensuring coal repayments from Germany.[11] Ireland may well be Invaded by the Armies of France and Germany if Great Britain does not stand between Ireland and the Euro Banking System Creditors who would loot the Citizens of the Country of their Wealth to pay for Private Banking losses. As the Congress of the United States was threatened with 'Tanks in the Streets/Martial Law' so shall ANY Country which does not bow to enslaving Her Citizenry to the Looting of the Banking oligarchs and their complicit/owned Sovereign Bureaucracies.
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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
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Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Southern England
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$20, $50, $75 grand a person, it doesn’t matter, they'll never pay it off, only default.
With what do you think they will pay it off with? …Their income? Their assets?
Just like Iceland, a huge percentage are unemployed, behind on their payments and underwater on their houses- and a huge debt.
It isn’t gonna be paid, there's too little to pay it with.
Their economy doesn't have the sort of surplus in real goods and services necessary.
There are a few countries in Europe that do have the G&S to support long term debt, but most don't. And the ones with a surplus certainly can't support the rest.
Default.
But why do it now?
Party on.
No need for pitchforks, just default and go back to subsistence at the very last moment.
The Irish have a tendency to head off to "pastures new" when subsistence comes a-knocking.
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Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
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Risingcream
Posts: 4406
Incept: 2007-09-07
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$26,000 per person is nothing. Unemployment benefits for USA 99 weeks @ $475 a week = $47025.00
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Civilization...ancient and wicked. --Subotai
“The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success”
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Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
Incept: 2008-10-13
Arizona via California
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Doesn't "Sons of Anarchy" have a chapter in Belfast, with ties to the IRA for gun running? Maybe they could bring a little "justice" to the bankers in the Emerald Isle? 
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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
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Eli
Posts: 7188
Incept: 2007-09-10
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Susanjbear
Posts: 417
Incept: 2010-06-10
Salt Lake City, Utah
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It took the Irish roughly 700 years to gain their independence from Britain, and it was a bloody and violent separation. Their own internal division as to exactly how that solution should take form is *still* a major painful sore spot for the country.
Now less than a century later the country crawled into the trap of the EU and bogus economics - my poor Irish granddad would have been horrified had he lived to see this happen. :(
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Susan
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Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Pa.
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In central Dublin, there is a memorial to the fallen from the Easter uprising in 1916 and the Irish rebellion of 1919-22 that led to the establishment of an independent Irish Republic. This is written on one of the walls of the Garden: Quote:We Saw A Vision
In the darkness of despair we saw a vision, We lit the light of hope, And it was not extinguished, In the desert of discouragement we saw a vision, We planted the tree of valour, And it blossomed
In the winter of bondage we saw a vision, We melted the snow of lethargy, And the river of resurrection flowed from it.
We sent our vision aswim like a swan on the river, The vision became a reality, Winter became summer, Bondage became freedom, And this we left to you as your inheritance.
O generation of freedom remember us, The generation of the vision. Michael Collins, a leader of the rebellion and key figure in the establishment of the republic, was the Minister of Finance of the new government. What would HE say to the current generation?
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Welcome to Pottersville
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Snowman
Posts: 1798
Incept: 2009-03-09
avoiding yellow snow
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I think the Irish government will ask for help they know they are screwed. Total government debt is about £110bn, £88bn is direct governmental and about 85% of that is held by non-Irish of which about 25% is held directly by the ECB and the rest by mostly European banks and insurance and pensions.
To cover the 110bn in debt, Ireland has 20bn in cash. They already burned through 8bn in the past year (i.e., from 28 to 20). The government receives 37bn and spends 57bn. They can't borrow more, and their principal and interest on debt is around 9bn annually. Hell of a burn rate!
So, let's say they give the finger to EU and default on their debt (stop making payments). They will still need to find another 10bn to break even (if they default they won't be able to raise a nickel). I would think getting 1/3rd of that via more taxes etc is probably doable but painful (haven't even touched private debt...). Then they need to sell stuff. They've got people looking at this, and its all infrastructure: ports, rail, postal services, airports, roads. Maybe this could make up the difference.
But that doens't happen overnight and no buyer is gonna make offers right now.
math just doesn't work for them.
I expect German and French "inspectors" in Dublin soon to "administer" the situation.
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Eli
Posts: 7188
Incept: 2007-09-10
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So either walk from your debt and still be 10bn in the whole which is manageable or, take a bailout that guarantees that you will be indebted forever to a bunch of pedophiles in Brussels.
The Irish need to tell the EU to***** off!
Take the pain fast, Ireland will still be green.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Snowman
Posts: 1798
Incept: 2009-03-09
avoiding yellow snow
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personally I think we should annex them as a 51st state, they might as well join the party, half their relatives live here anyway.
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Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Southern England
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Their total actual debt including corp, realestate and personal is much higher than £110 bln, then on top of that is the losses that have been hidden and the losses yet to come. Finally there is the commitments of pensions etc that are unfunded.
I still say it makes more sense to default, its the only place where the people would accept the tax increases, the shrinking gov, the broken promises and the austerity. How would they go for that lot if they believed they had been rescued?
Only question is how large can they grow the debt before they default?
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Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
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Dashingdwl
Posts: 9756
Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles
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Don't we 'Mericans owe more per person than the Irish?
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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
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Eli
Posts: 7188
Incept: 2007-09-10
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Shhhhhhhhhh!
Dash shut up the suckers, might hear you.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Southern England
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Thats only present Irish gov debt. Does not include bad stuff the gov took off the banks to support them previously and are still sat on gov balance sheet at mark to model values.
Iceland didnt have a huge gov debt either until they assumed the debt of the banks (under international pressure).
Couple that with the debt of the people and business and they ended up with a massive burden on the working people of Iceland.
Although, I guess it is smart not to default too early and not wipe all your debt.
If you were to default on a credit card and mess up your FICO score, you wouldn't do it for one store card would you?
You'd max out all your cards, then default on the lot in one go, because defaulting hits your creditworthiness, it don't matter how much you go down for.
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Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
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Uwe
Posts: 6435
Incept: 2009-01-03
19446
Online
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AHN News Staff wrote..Dublin, Ireland, United Kingdom (AHN) - [...] Somebody should inform AHN that that The Republic of Ireland is NOT part of the United Kingdom!  -Uwe-
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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
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Duski
Posts: 87
Incept: 2010-02-22
Banned
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Only incentive for bankers and their stockholders to stop taking too much risk is the chance of bankruptcy. Well, that simply does not happen anymore, apparently. So they will loot and steal everything they can after their bets go bad.
Will violence and revolutions really be only solutions at the end?
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Phantomace
Posts: 6393
Incept: 2009-03-16
Las Vegas, NV, and your screen
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The more I consider this, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion...
This is akin to Ireland having a huge CC debt (unsecured), and being ordered, at the point of a gun, to convert that debt into a 30yr mortgage at slightly better rates, but now securing it with the entire ****ing country.
The threat is, of course, that their credit will get trashed if they don't.
Sounds familiar, doesn't it?
This is the equivelant to telling the entire country they have to mortgage their future or they'll trash their FICO scores and have to eat ramen for a few years. Again, at the point of a gun.
Am I really very far off?
Ireland:
Tell the EC, the Banks and the bondholders to **** off, period.
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"That was a little trick I call math. Oops, now I'm not emotionally invested..." - Dilbert
The only good thing I have to say about Barney Frank is at least he's not breeding...
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