Here It Comes: Municipal Debt Funds
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-11-11 12:24
by Karl Denninger
in Bonds
Ignore this thread
Here It Comes: Municipal Debt Funds
 

I'd pay attention to these.....

That's IQI, a levered municipal bond fund.  It yields 6.5% at present - totally unsustainable in today's ZIRP environment.  At that discount (from recent price destruction) you're either getting the buy of the century or the portfolio is about to detonate in your face.  Pick one.

This would be California municipal debt run by PIMCO.  Yielding 7.8% (!!!)  Again, you're either getting the buy of the century here, or you're about to get utterly destroyed.

Then there's New York.  At today's price, this yields 5.8%.  Again, either you're getting the buy of the century on this fund or you're fixing to get utterly trashed in the coming months.

Note that the last time we saw this sort of distortion the fund price declines were correct, and they presaged a detonation in the stock market.  Yes, they were early - substantially so in the case of some of these.  But they were correct - the credit market usually is in leading the stock market.

So here's the deal folks.  If you believe that everything will be ok, then you're being given an absolute gift with the ability to buy a broadly-diversified municipal portfolio that yields 6.5% tax free in the case of IQI, and even more in the case of the California-specific fund (which is quite attractive if you live in California, as it would be state tax free as well.)

But if these early warnings are correct, this "reach for yield" is a warning of rank destruction that is soon to follow.  I would be extremely careful here - the last time we saw this sort of rapid deterioration the bond market was right and while the stock market did continue to putter along higher for a while, you were being told to get short, not buy - and especially not buy these issues.

For an indication of how bad it can get, IQI was cut by more than half in principal value into the depth of the collapse.  Those who bought it near the bottom have made a hell of a lot of money in capital gains - if they take the money.

I'm not touching these.  In normal times I'd be all over these instruments as a way to earn a very nice income without paying any Federal Income Tax - legally.  However, the risk of a 50% principal haircut doesn't interest me one bit.

You can bet there will be lots of people trying to entice you to buy into these "dips." 

Before you do it make sure you look at a five year daily chart for exactly what you might be buying into.

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User Info Here It Comes: Municipal Debt Funds in forum [Market-Ticker]
Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08

voluntary resigned
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We shall know that the financial crimes are over when Pimpco is out of business and Bill Gross is relegated to picking up cans on the sides of roads.
Hogman
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Derby City, USA
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what was the name of the fund you tickered several months ago (first of year?)

I need to keep an eye on these

guess I'll start a quote tab

thanks
Andyc
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-24


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"If you believe that everything will be ok, then you're being given an absolute gift with the ability to buy a broadly-diversified municipal portfolio that yields 6.5%"

The BANKS are or will be buying these because they do indeed know that they will be given a gift in the high yields they are currently producing and the bailout at par when they implode.......then they roll the bailout into say Illinois debt and the fun just keeps on going.

Time for our banksters to catch up with their European counterparts and play the bond hot potato game.
Genesis
Posts: 130804
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Probably IQI. I follow that one pretty regularly, as I used to have a ****load of money (7 figures) in it.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Corn1945
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What if they are pricing in defaults? Everything else aside, do you see munis as a safe investment? I am terrified of the things.
Matt
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Bothell, WA
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A lot of muni debt is about as safe is sovereign Irish bonds right now.

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I love the smell of burnt pump monkey in the morning. -Etz
Kiber
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One word.....Harrisburg...This is just the tip of the iceberg fellows...We have only just begun the death spiral to many of these markets...
Genesis
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No ****ing WAY would I own ANY of that **** right now.

GO bonds are, in general, considered safe. Well, they might not be, and if they're not, you're gonna get GANGRAPED.

I don't know how bad it might get, but this much I do know - there's no collateral to repo or foreclose on if you get ****ed in a municipal issue.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Popothebright
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Bangkok
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It sure would be interesting to see everything fall to pieces DURING the G20. I wonder if Benny would attempt a massive new stimulus while Obama and Timmy are rubbing shoulders with their*****ed-off counterparts, and attempting to come across as team players.



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Bertdilbert
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California is not ready to deal with issues in a real fashion yet and since they put Jerry Brown in a Gov, it is union pensions over state bonds...

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mschemeng
Posts: 180
Incept: 2010-10-03

Toronto ON
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RE many great posts by Karl today

With regards to protests in Europe, let’s hope protesters are as organized on Dec 7th, unofficial bank run day, again organized by Germans, but spreading Europe wide… it’s the same day when Ireland comes up with its new budget…Certainly, I would not go into that day without some volatility protection...
However, look at the organization of the protest…you have farmers providing blockade by their farm equipment, helping the protesters cause… I just don’t see this happening in US, people in Europe are much more involved…All of the protests across Europe, have labeled banks as the cause of crisis, and governments for allowing them to do so…

Add Dec 7, bank run day and Irish budget to Karl’s last post on muni bonds, I think we are going to have an inverse of Santa rally to get things going, max pain into Feb 2011, when we see how Ben f---ed margins reported…I still think there will be one last short squeeze into end of Nov, to insure all of herd in on one side of the trade and there will be POMO every single day next week into Op Ex??? I plan to add next week to my short positions, then some week after that…

on a lighter note here is another video from animated Taiwanese that get it…very, very funny…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGYAhiMwd....

Blackswan
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Just outside of Philly
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There has been no warnings. (sarcasm)


Hindenberger - unhealthy market warning- POMO pushed the blimps away.. for now.

Muni Bond funds

European PIIGS - Ireland, Greece, Spain

27 weeks of fund outflows

25% real unemployment

Extendend 99 week unemploy benefits running out for large chunks of people.
(45,000 people in the Philadelphia area will lose extendend unemploy benefits by March 2011)

Margin compression warnings - QE2 weak dollar - commod risk on, price increases in just about anything needed food - fuel

Currency wars - wrecking havoc / dislocation potential QE2

Foreclosure gate - Tsar bomb in a can being kicked down the street..

Cramer is bullsih.

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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
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Bagbalm
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Farmers in Europe are closer to town, Msch. It's worth your life to try to take a tractor from field to field around here much less on a main road.
The scale of distance for everything in Europe is different. That's why the 'progressive Utopian dream' of the US becoming like Europe is a physical impossibility. Mass transit only works where you have masses. When you try to apply it to a sprawled suburban area it is a quick fail. The dynamic between police and demonstrators is different too. Demonstrations that are riots in the US will progress to bloodshed on both sides quickly, and spill out into a greater area too. Again due to the different lay-out and what police are trained to do.
In the recent student riots/demos in England you notice the police were not heavily armed and mixed it up with the students? Here they would form a line and attempt to flank and contain them and being unable to maintain a separation would result in fears of losing control of their weapons so they would fire.
Hogman
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Bag,

think you posted in the wrong post

just say'n
Mschemeng
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Toronto ON
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Bag replied to my post, were I summarized situation from my perspective…Bag, I’m in Toronto, last G20 was here, we spent $1 billion, to protect idiots, I mean heads of states…
I didn’t mean to insult the farmers, it doesn’t have to be farmers that help, how about truckers or any other large vehicles that can do the same job (I has cousins stranded on Greek islands this summer , because of trucker blockade), Greece is a driving vacation for them, but it sucks when you have to buy gas in 2L Coke bottles at 10Euros/ litter to get home…
By the way, I’m not supporting revolution just saying that banks have to be forced to eat their losses, vs. transferring them into public debt…
Smacktle
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Texas
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Say it aint so Bags!

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Wb6yyz
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What if you already hold these issues? Time to bail? If you sell, where are you going to put the money that's any safer? Certainly not stocks. I suppose FDIC insured CDs would be safe, but at the near zero rate they are paying, QE 2 is going to destroy your purchasing power.
Corn1945
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I suggest "investing" heavily into canned goods. Every sector in the market is in mania land.
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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Those are pretty impressive breaks Karl and they all happened in unison. Someone knows something. Either the flash traders created a flash crash to take advantage, which due to the fact this is a 2 day phenom is highly unlikely or the rats are abandoning ship. The rats of course are the Wall Streeters who picked up this stuff at the bottom and nursed it back to health with the aid of Bandit Ben and obliging Obama and are merely selling out their profit while they still can.

Anyone who is buying anything either has inside knowledge or is an idiot. Only a fool would look at this situation without some kind of inside influence and see a buying opportunity in anything. There is over $50 trillion in US debt and there is $31 trillion in international bank credit in various currencies, so the supply of money is clearly overwhelmed by the amount of debt. It looks like the toilet lid is slamming quickly on the head of the dog that thought he might get quick drink.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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