Proof Of My Thesis On Those Who Are Not Rich
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-10-07 11:19
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Proof Of My Thesis On Those Who Are Not Rich
 

This is why Bernanke's attempts are doomed to fail in dramatic fashion, and ultimately, if he is not stopped, will destroy the nation:

Notice what's going on here.

The lowest quintile - the poorest Americans - are spending 23% more on food, 8% more on housing, and 9% more on health insurance.

What's worse, they're not spending less on food away from home. 

This is the key.  They're not shifting spending (as you can see in the above table) they are being forced to spend more even as their income decreases.

That's the lowest 20% of incomes in America folks, and it is going to destroy the people who are not wealthy.

There is nothing that redistribution can do to fix this.  It is happening as a direct result of the following:

  • Intentional debasement of the currency, leading to commodity price ramps.  This immediately shows up in the price of things you have to buy.  When you're strapped to begin with, you can't shift around these requirements - you need the basic necessities.  That is, you can't swap down to hamburger from steak - you're already eating hamburger, rice and beans.  When they shoot the moon in price you're screwed as there is no "trade down in quality" available to you.

  • Intentional distortion and propping up of housing prices.  Instead of forcing banks to take their medicine and losses, thereby allowing home prices to collapse (if that's what is to come), we are instead trying to prevent that supply from coming onto the market at dramatically lower prices.  This in turn means that rents for the lower-income people go up because of supply constraints.  And those people don't have the ability to afford it. 

  • Health insurance costs are soaring.   Obama claimed it wouldn't happen.  He lied.  It not only was going to happen as I pointed out, we now have proof it did.  And guess what - again, the lower class can't afford it.

Bernanke is directly responsible for this, as is Obama for refusing to put his boot up Bernanke's ass and eject him when he came up for re-nomination.  I have been writing about this for more than three years, and sent a letter to all 535 members of Congress in the fall of 2007 over this exact issue. 

They didn't give a damn, because none of them are poor.  But those who are aren't just losing ground, they're being destroyed, with their cost-adjusted standard of living falling by more than 10% in two years.

Everyone else can in some fashion or form adjust to some degree, and as incomes fall so do brackets, to a point.  But in the lowest quintile there's no bracket to drop down to, and no way to take advantage of more deductions, because when it comes to income tax you already pay zero (or close to it.)

To be blunt, this sucks, and if we don't stop it the creep up into the next bracket, the lower-middle class, will occur.

Once it hits there we will be in a position that there will be no clean way to recover from what's occurring.

Bluntly put, we must remove "The Bezzle" and force those who have bad debt to eat it.  System liquidity must be normalized and the bad debt forced into the open where it defaults.  Housing prices must fall precipitously - to where the free and open market clears them, without government and banking system distortion.  And The Dollar must stop being attacked by our very own government and Federal Reserve - it will, if that ceases, rise back into balance, driving down commodities and thus input costs.

This will promote profits by domestic industry (for those who sell domestically) which will in turn promote employment.  A normalized interest system will promote capital formation.  And a collapse in housing prices will mean that homes will be able to be bought inexpensively by people who want to live in them, and treated as shelter, instead of being a speculative tool that ultimately screws the people on the bottom of the economic ladder.

Unfortunately, this article just puts in stark relief exactly what I predicted back in 2007, and as such I must do it again:

smiley

Now cut that **** out Bernanke and Obama.

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User Info Proof Of My Thesis On Those Who Are Not Rich in forum [Market-Ticker]
Obseedian
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Dumbass Bernanke thinks real economic growth comes from inflation. It's the other way around.

If prices start to rise materially the banks, who are holding paper with super-low rates are ****ed. Can you say S&L * 100?

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Pod
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These numbers are Y/Y % change in aggregate dollars spent? Or are they some sort of % of disposable income? Because if it is the former, then all this says is that lower income people are eating home more often and eating more fooed when they are home.
Genesis
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Pod - look at the income numbers.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Corn1945
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I'm not exactly worried about these folks. They are the same ones who receive enormous government benefits, they will prosper at my expense.

Grumpy_bear
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More SRS please Mistress!
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Quote:
That is, you can't swap down to hamburger from steak - you're already eating hamburger, rice and beans.

Bravo Ben: Let them eat mud pies!
Salt, vegetable oil, and dirt. Stock up before winter!

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.
Curbyourrisk
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Everything is about income. THat is why I do not belive inflation is sustainable at current wage rates. yeah, we might spike up in prices...but the good old law of supply and demand will eventually rear its fugly head. At which point, prices will re adjust lower to meet the lower demand thanks to rising prices. My company deals in commodities...all kind of commodities, from wheat and grains to steel, copper, aluminum, chemicals, textiles and oils (all kinds). Prices are going higher, yet our volumes are going lower.....SOMEONE explain that to me...please.

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Time is up.

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Direstraits
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Risk, foreigners consumption has grown a lot especially since their currencies have appreciated a lot.

Oil priced in Australian Dollars is going down, this really is a USD problem as America continues to be a smaller piece of the global pie prices can rise with lower local demands.

Poor people tend to vote for liberals anyway, so isn't this what they wanted? Why feel bad for them when overwhelmingly they voted for Obama and others of his ilk

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Starving the Freeloaders
Joejohns
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prices higher volume lower - fraud speculation with bennie bucks

@corn - they will prosper at your expense for awhile but soon your expense will not be enough and your gvt will not be able to support them, at that point you will become "concerned":) if not a corn-nugget!
Rustedbird
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"I'm not exactly worried about these folks. They are the same ones who receive enormous government benefits, they will prosper at my expense. "

No. I pay a flat rate tax called social security. That's 12.4 percent on any income below 97K. I'm way below. Under 19K. I'm working hard for this wage too.



Direstraits
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@rustedbird, that's not a tax in the true sense of the word as you are to be given benefits later in life.

Do you think those who make a lot don't pay 12.4 percent plus obscene income taxes you don't pay?

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Starving the Freeloaders
Mdporter
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Quote:
@rustedbird, that's not a tax in the true sense of the word as you are to be given benefits later in life.

Do you think those who make a lot don't pay 12.4 percent plus obscene income taxes you don't pay?


The higher the income, the less SS taxes you pay as a percentageof income because of the cap on SS taxes. And, it is a tax with no guarantee of a future return.
Translator
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At the risk of sounding unkind, I find it hard to feel sympathetic for those in the lowest quintile who don't change their spending habits on "Food away from home" - the most expensive kind of food.
Dumbasses.

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Everybody’s comprehensive list for medical care:

“I want the best medical care in the world, and I want somebody else to pay for it”
A.D.E.
Jstanley01
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Direstraits wrote..
Poor people tend to vote for liberals anyway, so isn't this what they wanted? Why feel bad for them when overwhelmingly they voted for Obama and others of his ilk
Liberals long ago found their ecological niche in this society, as intermediaries between the mainstream and the underclass.

At the cost of transfer payments from the productive to the unproductive -- after the rake off the top by the aparatchics in the bowels of the governmental and NGO apparatuses -- the latter remain sufficiently bought off to refrain from burning down the cities.

If the bread runs out for this bread and circus show, the circus is going to turn into a real circus.

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Corn1945
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Quote:
At the cost of transfer payments from the productive to the unproductive -- after the rake off the top by the aparatchics in the bowels of the governmental and NGO apparatuses -- the latter remain sufficiently bought off to refrain from burning down the cities.

If the bread runs out for this bread and circus show, the circus is going to turn into a real circus.


I will not be held hostage. If they choose to go this route they will face the consequences. And if it happens due to fiscal collapse, the government will not be in a position to protect them anymore.
Jstanley01
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Nature abhors a vacuum. So like has already reportedly begun in some localities, local gangs and warlords -- more or less in collusion with local "authorities" -- will step into the void and set up protection rackets on the neighborhood level.

If you think IRS collection efforts can be dire...

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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Max2205
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What kind of BS is this:

McDonald's, 29 other firms get health care coverage waivers
Updated 6h 43m ago |  Comments 1,433  |  Recommend 69 E-mail | Save | Print |
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By Drew Armstrong, Bloomberg Business News
Nearly a million workers won't get a consumer protection in the U.S. health reform law meant to cap insurance costs because the government exempted their employers.
Thirty companies and organizations, including McDonald's (MCD) and Jack in the Box (JACK), won't be required to raise the minimum annual benefit included in low-cost health plans, which are often used to cover part-time or low-wage employees.

The Department of Health and Human Services, which provided a list of exemptions, said it granted waivers in late September so workers with such plans wouldn't lose coverage from employers who might choose instead to drop health insurance altogether.

Without waivers, companies would have had to provide a minimum of $750,000 in coverage next year, increasing to $1.25 million in 2012, $2 million in 2013 and unlimited in 2014.

FIGHTS: Lawsuits over health care law heat up
REFORM: A consumer primer for health insurance changes in 2011
WHAT'S CHANGING: Provisions of the new health law
HEALTH CARE: New website compares coverage prices
Q&A: Answers on adding adult children to health insurance
"The big political issue here is the president promised no one would lose the coverage they've got," says Robert Laszewski, chief executive officer of consulting company Health Policy and Strategy Associates. "Here we are a month before the election, and these companies represent 1 million people who would lose the coverage they've got."

The United Agricultural Benefit Trust, the California-based cooperative that offers coverage to farm workers, was allowed to exempt 17,347 people. San Diego-based Jack in the Box's waiver is for 1,130 workers, while McDonald's asked to excuse 115,000.

The plans will be exempt from rules intended to keep people from having to pay for all their care once they reach a preset coverage cap. McDonald's, which offers the programs as a way to cover part-time employees, told the Obama administration it might re-evaluate the plans unless it got a waiver.

McDonald's and Jack in the Box didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

The waiver program is intended to provide continuous coverage until 2014, when government-organized marketplaces will offer insurance subsidized by tax credits, says HHS spokeswoman Jessica Santillo.

The regulations would have hit some insurance plans for young adults in the universal coverage program run by the state of Massachusetts. The program, enacted in 2006, has a plan for individuals ages 18 to 26 who can't get coverage through work, covering about 5,000 people. The waiver obtained by the state "will give us time to implement the transition plan in a manner designed to mitigate premium increases," says Dick Powers, a spokesman for the state program.

The biggest single waiver, for 351,000 people, was for the United Federation of Teachers Welfare Fund, a New York union providing coverage for city teachers. The waivers are effective for a year and were granted to insurance plans and companies that showed that employee premiums would rise or that workers would lose coverage without them, Santillo says.

© 2010 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved

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Ostriches
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"That is, you can't swap down to hamburger from steak - you're already eating hamburger, rice and beans."

No, but you CAN go from hamburger to frozen family sized foil tins of Salisbury steak and gravy and sliced turkey and gravy!

Hmmm, family sized foil tins of Salisbury steak and gravy... (in Homer voice)

Thanks for the childhood memories, KD!

Jinxx0r
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Silver
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I thought it was interesting how much the top 40% are spending on education... does that mean we're all retooling for the new economy?

I know I am.

It looks like the bottom 40% is not (or is just not financially able to do so).

Interesting graphs...
Aaron
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Los Angeles
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Prolonged low interest rates and currency debasement grind away at the economic fundamentals. Those that are retired or close to retirement lose their fixed income. The incentive to save goes away, which destroys capital formation--people don't put their money in banks, banks don't lend. As a result, velocity of money slows dramatically. Both the consumer velocity and the lending velocity.

In the meantime, the higher commodity prices, without a corresponding rise in wages, causes a decrease in disposable income, which is a further hit on the velocity of money. It further increases business expense, but without a corresponding increase in revenues. So profits get squeezed.

All around, it's bad.

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Schwantz
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Your country now has more people on food stamps than my country has people.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/foodsta....

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Floridasandy
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this column pretty much sums up the damage that obama/ bernanke are doing to the very same people they pretend to be "helping".

i think aaron's comments also sum it up. he said everything that i wanted to say first, so he sucks.:)

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