| User Info
| Best September Since 1939! in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Smacktle
Posts: 1362
Incept: 2009-01-20
Texas
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This is clearly not gonna end well.
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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
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Jubber
Posts: 14147
Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
Online
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..to be fair WW11 started and most of Europe collapsed ...
Hey, does that mean WW111 next year?
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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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Blackswan
Posts: 5564
Incept: 2007-11-06
Just outside of Philly
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Jubber such an optimist.
Now where is that sideline money?
Oh wait it went to pay for baby food and dog food. Don't tell CNBC it would break their little black hearts.
C'mon people. Step up and take the bag.
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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
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Docj
Posts: 999
Incept: 2009-09-10
Duck & Cover
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History never repeats precisely - but it always rhymes.
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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
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End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9523
Incept: 2009-03-25
The New 3rd World
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This time we'll probably get a 40% rally, likely 140%! They didn't have such great bubble blowers back then......
I'm so sick of the epic disconnect / detachment from economic reality........
This is just flat out bull**** these clowns think they can turn an entire economy with this fake ass stock market.........
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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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Soar07
Posts: 353
Incept: 2009-05-04
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Yeah !! What a frikking comparison! September 1939, the Nazi's rolled into Poland, and kicked off the most destructive war in the history of the world.
CNBS at it's finest!
From wikipedia
The Invasion of Poland, also known as the September Campaign or 1939 Defensive War (Polish: Kampania wrześniowa or Wojna obronna 1939 roku) in Poland and the Poland Campaign (German: Polenfeldzug) in Germany, was an invasion of Poland by Germany, the Soviet Union, and a small Slovak contingent that marked the start of World War II. The invasion began on 1 September 1939, one week after the signing of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, and ended 6 October 1939 with Germany and the Soviet Union dividing and annexing the whole of Poland.
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Time to put the USA first! Stop Globalization, Illegal Immigration, Outsourcing. Buy American. Enforce the rule of law. Drop kick political correctness!
Reason: Added
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Hogman
Posts: 7874
Incept: 2008-02-18
Derby City, USA
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Doc you beat me to it
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Throxxofvron
Posts: 10325
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Do your drinking at home; You wouldn't want to hazard getting Putsched around in a Beer Hall...
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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
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Lrombes
Posts: 54
Incept: 2010-01-06
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Maybe it won't be tanks rolling, but instead an economic war between us and China and/or someone else? Even worse economic results, but starving instead of bullets. Which is better?
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Cloudeleven
Posts: 784
Incept: 2007-09-06
USA
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Most of the gain in Sept. 1939 happened on Sept. 5, when there was a HUGE 9.52% surge on the Dow. The NY Times explained the reason for the surge as investors deciding that a war would be good for the economy.
The Dow bounced sideways until May 1940.
In May 1940, there was a 25% crash over two weeks after Hitler invaded France and it was feared he would invade London next.
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Medicdan
Posts: 8024
Incept: 2010-02-11
Scottsdale, AZ
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But it's different this time.
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Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08
voluntary resigned
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Quote:This is just flat out bull**** these clowns think they can turn an entire economy with this fake ass stock market......... They turned the US economy, or at least created that perception, back in 2002-2003, by pumping up the fake-ass housing market. They've already tried turning the economy by pumping up the bond market. They tried with the housing market. They even tried with the tech bubble. None of it really worked. So why not try the stock market and commodities this time around? If they manage to pump up the equity of legitimately useful and productive firms and cause formation of new ones, what bad could come of it? I know my buddies in the engineering business sure as heck won't start drilling new oil wells or building nuclear power plants, when they can take their cash and buy oil firms at 10X earnings or less (today's market). But if oil firms are priced at 50X earnings, they will invest their cash into new production, and sell those assets into the market, earning a profit. The cure to a bad economy, in this case, is actually a high stock market into which business owners can sell their existing businesses at a decent price and start new ones. The problem is not that people don't have money to spend. The problem is that business owners (ie: stock investors) are broke and haven't seen a return on their investments for years. Asking them to make new investments when their existing ones aren't performing, the result of the past decade or two of stockholder-unfriendly economic policy, is the definition of insanity. IMHO, the Fed should be directly monetizing the S&P500, or at least the economically useful components (ie: the non-financial sector), instead of trying to support the US Treasury market. They would see much better returns for doing so, by rewarding equity, instead of rewarding free-loading debt holders. |
Genesis
Posts: 130779
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Quote:The problem is not that people don't have money to spend. The problem is that business owners (ie: stock investors) are broke and haven't seen a return on their investments for years. Asking them to make new investments when their existing ones aren't performing, the result of the past decade or two of stockholder-unfriendly economic policy, is the definition of insanity. THAT is total bull**** at so many levels I don't know where the **** to start.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Quote:They would see much better returns for doing so, by rewarding equity, instead of rewarding free-loading debt holders. In the words of the wise internet ... LOL WUT???? In what world does equity win over bond holders? Equity is the risky, less safe choice because it requires profit after paying back debt. When the company goes under, equity gets zero. |
Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08
voluntary resigned
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Quote:THAT is total bull**** at so many levels I don't know where the **** to start. What's so "BS" about that? Did you go out and buy more modem banks at your ISP when existing ones weren't performing (ie: providing a cash return that was greater than the sum of your internal funding cost, operating expenses, and depreciation)? I suspect not. So why do you expect US stock owners to do the same? When they haven't seen a positive return on their investments in the Dow, S&P500, or, heaven forbid, the Nasdaq, over the past decade? Grumpy business owners who aren't making any money don't hire workers, don't give their workers raises, and try to figure out all sorts of ways to cut costs. But give a business owner some profit, and they'll go out and hire, expand, etc., because not only do they have confidence, they have the ability to do so.
Quote:In what world does equity win over bond holders
In the real world. If bonds consistently return more than taking the risk of owning a business, then eventually, nobody will own businesses. A risk premia on risky assets is necessary to keep the world of business moving, and to keep risk takers in the business of taking risk. Otherwise, we'll just be left with a bunch of bankers, like we have right now, running dividend farms and clipping coupons.
In a liquidation, of course, bond holders remain senior, but equity needs to be compensated for its junior status. The past decade has not given any compensation to equity (markets are flat, if not lower in real terms), while the bond crowd has been handsomely rewarded. QE just reinforces the 'rewards' to bond holders, who have already been severely over-rewarded. |
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9523
Incept: 2009-03-25
The New 3rd World
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Pitz wrote..The cure to a bad economy, in this case, is actually a high stock market into which business owners can sell their existing businesses at a decent price and start new ones.
Based on your very specious view of the stock market, NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, CMG, PCLN, AZO, CAT, NKE, CRM, IBM, etc. - with their stocks all at or near ALL TIME HIGHS - should get busy hiring up all the unemployed workers out there........
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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Let's try this modified version of the quote: Quote:The cure to a bad housing market, in this case, is actually high home prices into which homeowners can sell their existing homes at a decent price and then buy new ones. Something tells me it's not going to work like you think... |
Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08
voluntary resigned
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Quote:Based on your very specious view of the stock market, NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, CMG, PCLN, AZO, CAT, NKE, CRM, IBM, etc. - with their stocks all at or near ALL TIME HIGHS - should get busy hiring up all the unemployed workers out there........
If those stocks are priced higher, in terms of P/E (adjusted for cyclicality, sustainability, and growth), than new assets could be formed at, then the owners of those firms should be selling and using the proceeds to start new businesses, or to invest in less expensive assets. Quote:The cure to a bad housing market, in this case, is actually high home prices into which homeowners can sell their existing homes at a decent price and then buy new ones.
If you define a bad housing market, as being one where house prices are too high, then high prices are actually the cure, over the long run. Most house buyers would define a bad housing market, as a market in which houses are priced in excess of 2-3X income. |
Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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The cure to a bad economy is for prices to drop to the point where people don't have to borrow and therefore encumber future earnings in order to acquire and maintain the basics in life - food, clothing, shelter, transportation.
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Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Equities still only have value based on earnings and profit. You can't just buy stocks to make them produce more earnings.
Just like houses still only have value as shelter, regardless of the price people are paying.
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