CISCO: Anyone Remember LUCENT?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-08-11 17:43
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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CISCO: Anyone Remember LUCENT?
 

Uh, yeah.

From the conference call: "Days Sales Outstanding surge from 27 to 41 days."

Oh really Mr. Chambers?

Anyone remember these tickers?

Let's go to the "front" of the line:

The book cooking continues.  CISCO comes out with "great" earnings but hidden in there is the fact that they're writing their own financing - and holding it off-book.  Banks are still carrying HELOCs behind underwater firsts at or near PAR, even when the first is non-performing.  Those loans have a literal zero recovery value.  What could possibly go wrong with hiding asset quality (or lack thereof) off balance sheet where nobody can see it?  Nobody remembers Lucent?  Enron?  It wasn't THAT long ago.  Will it get CISCO or these banks?  I have no clue but this much I do know - nobody ever hides good news, they sing from the rafters.  You judge what's going on here.

Now add to this deterioration in customer pays and tell me what is coming.  Anyone remember Lucent and Winstar (which bought my company, incidentally, then blew sky high over, in no small part, their inability to pay Lucent.)

Winstar, if you recall, was the largest corporate bankruptcy in American history - until MCI blew up, that is. 

But the story wasn't Winstar blowing up.  It was that Lucent was nearly bankrupted with all their "vendor held" financing, and ultimately was forced into a merger, with essentially all of their shareholder value destroyed.

All because they got cute with vendor financing in order to keep the Ponzi Scheme of "indefinite growth" going - and thought that the economy would continue to "be ok" or even "improve."

They were wrong, and got destroyed.

There were others who noted what CISCO was doing months ago, but who else was sounding the alarm and raising hell about the risk in that strategy?

Nobody.

Indeed, last quarter Chambers was out on the conference call claiming both excellent visibility and a very bullish outlook!  What a different three months makes.

Tonight the stock is trading $21.85, down from the close of $23.73 and well below the 52-week high (in late April) of $27.74.

Looks like quite the haircut from the recent highs - more than 20% - eh?  Worse, it's trading aftermarket below key support at $22.50 - well below.

Better hope $21 holds, because if it doesn't it's a LONG way down.

Betcha this ain't over, and I still want to know exactly how much of that vendor financing crap is off book and exactly how well it is performing.

CISCO better pray that I'm wrong in my macro view, because if I'm not things are going to get very interesting for them.

Disclosure: No position

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User Info CISCO: Anyone Remember LUCENT? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Spanktron9
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time to go short CSCO?

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Alexjones
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Damn Karl, I've been waiting two hours for this. I'm going to savor it.
Darth
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Hope they don't go TOO far off into the abyss(as in, cease to exist).

I'm Cisco certified! lol Actually it doesn't REALLY matter. Aside from certain hardware features/capabilities, the knowledge isn't very proprietary. However, it couldn't be good for me if they totally stopped making 'stuff'.
Wawawa
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Would someone help me here, thanks.

How come "off book" or "off balance sheet" is legal or allowed?
How "off balance sheet" ploys work?

Does not it allow companies in fact carry two books?
DOes not it allow companies to be deceptive in reporting their financial condition?

I do not get it!!

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RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :)
Ak1900
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why bother with csco? why not the other more vulnerable tech cos? they will win back the price lost... Look NFLX, AKAM, IBM after a few days post earnings they resumed the climb. I am waiting for 1140+ on the SPX.

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Sparticlebrane
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Here's to hoping they don't go belly up anytime soon...I was hoping to get a few certs in the next little bit so I can get out of my current job and into something better.

I got my CCNA in the 11th grade but let it expire a few years back -- in retrospect that was a big mistake on my part.

Reason: better wording
Widgeon
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Thanks for the Trip Down bk-Memory Lane.

I've owned Winstar, LU, Worldcom ...

Genesis
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One of my worst mistakes as a trader - and one I still keep the confirm around for - was a purchase of six figures worth of MCI when the stock was well under a buck.

Why? I knew they carried ~20-25% of all federal data and voice traffic and assumed that the government would NOT allow them to die.

Bad bet - my trade was worth a LITERAL zero.

It was the biggest single loss I've ever booked, and it was entirely, 100%, stupidity on my part.

I wanted to short Winstar so badly after the sale of my company closed I could TASTE it. My lawyers told me "don't even THINK about it." I didn't do it - but man, it was tempting. Ithink I could have defended against any claim of inside information, but it could have gotten quite expensive..... probably best that I followed their advice, although that would have been a ****ing INSANELY good trade.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

2banana
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Quote:
It was the biggest single loss I've ever booked, and it was entirely, 100%, stupidity on my part.


The same logic recently would have worked well with the TBTF banks and financial companies when they were close to a buck...
Colk55
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I remember because my brother worked for them from '71 when the place he worked at was still just Western Electric. Then it was AT&T Tech before finishing his career at Lucent. He had finished paying off his house in '92 and with some of his savings bought I believe 2,000 Lucent shares when it was around $8. Sold them all at $80 because he "Had a feeling". Needless to say, he was glad he did.

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Randy123
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Wasn't Lucent worth like 300 bill at one point? Whoa.

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Genesis
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Yep. $80 was pretty much the top. He "got it all" pretty much, which was a damn good play.

I bailed on all my stocks in Mid 99 and endured more than six months of people telling me how dumb I was.

I still had my house and my money a year later - they did not.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Jv
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--

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Starve the beast... any beast!! We can vote with our wallets every day.

Pitz
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When will this deflationary nonsense finally go away in the computer hardware industry?

In no other industry are the customers' expectations to have double the performance every 18 months, for half the price.

Cisco's engineers (or the engineers who work at their competitors and suppliers) are at least twice as smart as your average banker. Why is it that they don't make enough to afford a house in the Silicon Valley at a reasonable (ie: 2-3X) multiple of their income?

Seriously, where does the line get drawn here? If financing the sale of Cisco products was too much of a risk for traditional lenders, why is it a good risk for Cisco's shareholders? Certainly Cisco would have been better off furloughing much of their workforce until demand came back, instead of overproducing.

But wait, because much of their engineering workforce are foreigners on the H1-B visa, they're essentially not allowed to lay them off without losing them forever, and all that valuable intellectual property ends right up in India and China. At least if they hired locals, they could lay them off when times were slow, and their IP wouldn't be usurpable by foreign nationals from countries where copyright law is toilet paper.
Fatherofreds
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Memories. I worked with a orthopod that was the posterchild for arrogance. He would stop during a surgery and return a call to his broker. He crowed about Cisco. He was going to make millions because his friend the broker liked him. I think he was in around 55 and expected it to rocket up above a sawbuck. It fell to around 12. He refused to believe it would not suddenly fly high again. He lost his shirt and had to work ER shifts to make money. We called him the "Cisco Kid" after that. Really*****ed me off when he broke scrub to talk on his damn phone. Doctors should never fly an airplane or invest on their own. Father of Reds

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Obseedian
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Bwahahhahahaa...I knew this was gonna happen when I read the off balance sheet arrangement in their 10Q a few months back.


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Darth
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"Sparticlebrane" wrote..
I was hoping to get a few certs in the next little bit so I can get out of my current job and into something better.


Your Cisco cert(s) will still be great, even if they are expired, as long as you have experience to go along with the certs. If you are looking to expand your horizons, I'd recommend VMware certs as well. Virtualization is all the rage these days. You are REQUIRED to take the officially sanctioned VMware classes before they will allow you to be certified, so that makes it a little more expensive than the Cisco certifications are. The classes are pretty good though. They filled in some gaps in my knowledge from just working with it hands on for awhile at work.

My boss just hated it because when I was done with the VMware classes, I came back wanting to spend a whole bunch of money lol. EMC SAN, servers with previously unimaginable amounts of RAM, combined with software licensing. "Thanks for paying for me to take $2,400 worth of classes, now I want $500,000 worth of 'toys' to seriously implement what I learned". After it was over, I had nearly our entire primary datacenter consolidated down to a three cabinets(previously unthinkable). The entire thing will easily pay for itself eventually from the cost savings in power/cooling. Neat stuff!

(apologies for straying off topic KD)
Dmm219
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Whats even more amazing is that the GOP gives tons of economic credence to one Carly Fiorina, who not only virtually destroyed HP, but was FRONT AND CENTER along with Rich McGinn cooking the books at Lucent.

The fact that those two are not in jail today is a sad sad thing...nope...one is living is his homestead act protected house in FL, permanently disgraced as a CEO but living rich off all the money he stole from Lucent share holders...and the other, for some god unknown reason, has found enough stupid people to elect her in primaries...
Darth
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Quote:
The fact that those two are not in jail today is a sad sad thing...nope...one is living is his homestead act protected house in FL, permanently disgraced as a CEO but living rich off all the money he stole from Lucent share holders...and the other, for some god unknown reason, has found enough stupid people to elect her in primaries...


Are those the only people that you can think of that should be in jail for such things? Can you think of any democrat candidates?

I so hate partisan bull****.
Dmm219
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"Are those the only people that you can think of that should be in jail for such things? Can you think of any democrat candidates?

I so hate partisan bull****."

There's nothing partison about this. I can't help the fact that it was McCain that chose her to be his main financial advisor. I can't help it that Fiorina is winning GOP contests. It is what it is. Deal with it.

There are plenty of examples on the left as well...Summers, Geitner, you name it. They are all to blame.

Ain't gonna stop me from calling out the GOP when its due.
Bustedbuck69
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Anyone remember Lucent?

Only to well chief! Do you have to tap the memory bank to reincarnate that nightmare? This was semi-permanently filed in the denial section until you did that reality crap AGAIN.

Ah, yes the great Bell Labs spawned from AT+T and Western Electric Labs, with a multitude of great researchers and discoveries. Shockley, Brattain and Barden invent the transistor. Bell Labs gets spun off from AT+T, becoming Lucent then Lucent Alcatel.

I was a member of the intelligentsia (a legend in my mind) and cackled at those buying @>60, I watched and waited until it (Lu) hit 35, then hit the buy button. Weeee, we are going live in the Hamptons with the G_D's work folkssmiley. The rest is the repulsive historysmiley. How could this happen to the great Bell Labs? Surely they will tame fusion, cure cancer, and invent the perpetual motion machine.

This memory lane moment was like going from diapers to depends, and missing all the fun in between. Horrific visual---mea culpa.

Geeez---learning can be so expensive. Thanks Gen for pushing the fast forward learning button.

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Pitz
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Quote:
"Thanks for paying for me to take $2,400 worth of classes, now I want $500,000 worth of 'toys' to seriously implement what I learned". After it was over, I had nearly our entire primary datacenter consolidated down to a three cabinets(previously unthinkable). The entire thing will easily pay for itself eventually from the cost savings in power/cooling. Neat stuff!


Why were your machines so chronically underloaded that you were able to accomplish this?

Certainly, when you upgraded your old Pentium Pro's to shiny new Xeons, you should have known that such machines have substantially higher capacity.

Virtualization can be nice, although, highly overrated. If you have a hundred NT machines just sitting there idling 24/7 (which is the sort of case study that the virtualization vendors push heavily), then your problems are much larger than what a virtualization setup can economically solve.

The big problem for Cisco, and the rest of the hardware and software industry, is that, while they keep delivering this innovation, they're not capturing much, if any of the value. Part of that is that we've allowed the Chinese to usurp much of our intellectual property, without compensation. Another part of that is that we have boneheads running around writing free/open source software that renders much of the proprietary intellectual property of the software industry worthless.

Reason: worthless, not useless.
Genesis
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ROFL!

Last time I checked you have the right to choose what you do with your intellectual products - including giving them away.

Incidentally, but for that "open source" software Tickerforum (and every other forum on the Internet) would be pay-only, and pay-heavily.

Price an Oracle license lately?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Obsidian
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Quote:
Another part of that is that we have boneheads running around writing free/open source software that renders much of the proprietary intellectual property of the software industry worthless.


If it's so easy to write, that these boneheads can do it on their own dime/time, then it's not really worth a lot to begin with... is it?

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