Mr. President: Unplug the F*ing Computers
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-05-06 15:51
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Mr. President: Unplug the F*ing Computers
 

Shall we talk about RISK in the markets and in particular high-frequency trading and direct-exchange connected computers?

What happened?  Part of it was right here:

That trade appears to be part of what set it off.

The DOW (and other indices) dropped hard.  The response in the computers connected directly to the exchanges was instantaneous and produced this:

A computer-driven bid collapse followed and the result was a more than 1,000 point selloff.

No, that's not the ONLY oddity.  There were plenty of wild moves in both option premia and the FX just before it all went down the toilet - but the computer trading systems, with no humans actually feeding them orders - that is, autonomous robots - did exactly what they were programmed to do.  When the bids were exhausted some stocks actually traded at effective zero:

There is absolutely no protection against this sort of thing in the market for the average investor, or anyone other than the HFT boys.  Stops don't work as there's "no bid" during these events - there was LITERALLY no bid in the futures for about 30 seconds, then no offer on the way back up.  Globex (the E-Mini S&P 500 futures) were deeply involved, with the bid and offer stack basically gone during the middle of the event.

This sort of thing has to be stopped.

This was not humans - it was pure computer algorithm trading.  If you had stops set, you got blown out way below any reasonable trading range with no recourse.  Margin requirements were raised instantly on futures which sure didn't help.

This was essentially the 1987 program-trading crash powered by the fastest CPUs money can buy, and points out that these systems do not have social utility and at times like this they are unbelievably destructive.

The banks and others who have argued for innovation have just proved once again that their brand of "innovation" means that the average investor gets bent over the table.  You cannot, as an investor, be in the market until these outrageous practices are permanently barred from the exchanges.

I was on the right side of the destruction today, but I could have very easily been on the wrong side and gotten badly hurt.  As it stands I'm quite certain there were tens of thousands of individual traders who went so far into negative equity in the futures market and got immediately liquidated that we will be hearing of blown up accounts and bankrupted traders for weeks if not months.

To those who say that we have "restored confidence" in the markets and "the worst is beyond us", I want everyone to remember very carefully the early 2007 market collapse that originated in Asia and came over here - the event that began my writing of The Ticker.

When governments tamper with markets as has been done over the last year and change to the point that true liquidity leaves and is replaced by computer-driven volume, this is what happens as there is NO UNDERLYING BID.

VOLUME IS NOT LIQUIDITY.  Liquidity creates volume but not the other way around.  We have deluded ourselves into believing that a handful of major banks passing shares between each other funded with zero percent loans equals "liquidity."

IT DOES NOT.

This is the harbringer of more trouble to come, it is not over, and I have been warning people all through the so-called "new bull market" that this sort of event - and likely more than one - was coming as a direct consequence of the destruction of true liquidity and it's replacement with BS and games.

It was simply a matter of when.

Bernanke, Geithner and Obama have failed to restore confidence - in fact all they've done is put in front of the big banks a near-unlimited amount of money to game the system with and game it they have - right up until you had your stops run today and got screwed once again.

Say thanks to your elected and appointed officials who have taken their bows for something that, just as with "Mission Accomplished", has turned out to be one gigantic lie.

PS: Tickerforum remained up during the entire event, although it recorded the highest load-average and page-count spike ever seen, including during the depths of the 2008/2009 hell.

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User Info Mr. President: Unplug the F*ing Computers in forum [Market-Ticker]
Thesev
Posts: 1385
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Louisiana
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While the slowdown on TF was going on, I was thinking, "Sure, NOW everyone wants to listen to Karl!".

Heh. Too late.

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The reason the republic isn't working is that it's being run as a democracy.

It doesn't matter who you are, or who you Think you are, the Math is Going to Win.
Ludanjack
Posts: 1429
Incept: 2007-07-29
Green
Ft. Lauderdale
Banned
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Wow..thanks for the ticker. Sucks being absolutely on the right side of this with options and unable to unload them due to 0 bid. Damn.
Tsberts
Posts: 2357
Incept: 2008-02-05
Gold
Minnesota
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Slightly OT, but related to your PS:

Karl, could you share your pageviews/load histogram for today, or is that not something you disclose?

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10337
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Un****ingbelievable.

Then the herd runs in terror to TF to look for direction...

The herd is years too late.


If .Gov won't pull the plug the People will have to.

Cut the Power, cut the Phone Lines, Cut the Cell Towers, ...

& by the way: how many shares are being sold today that will not be delivered as per the Lehman take down?
Are the algos running naked again, against Who; -and at what %?

We know what the hell is going on here.

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Otiswild
Posts: 5627
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
Inside you, the force is!
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TF > my broker smiley

Still, I'm wondering if you should code in a throttle or two, like going to less-bandwidth/render-intensive layouts (who knows, that code could be reused for iPhone/Android templates ;)) or displaying a throttle page for the starless.. Presumably the recent restrictions helped with the load?

(My highest load AFAICR was an AIX Sendmail server, peaked out at about 422 or so. Surprisingly, I could still interact with it, but it was like smoke signals on a 3270)
Britishsteel
Posts: 3589
Incept: 2007-12-07
Gold
New york
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yup, this was that silent moment of disconnect

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One Ring to rule them all,One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all,and in the darkness bind them.
smiley
Inez
Posts: 360
Incept: 2009-07-08

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This selloff was result of HFT and low volume rally. It shows HFT computers are trading between each other and not a real stock rally.
Surprisingly bank stocks did not plunge like some other stocks like PG, Apple.
Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Otis, yes, I could have shut off avatars and inlines - probably should have, actually, but things were responding REASONABLY well.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bozonian
Posts: 19889
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
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I like the "Told Ya" smiley. Use it more often.

Make it link to an article where you first talk about the subject You Told Us about.

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.

Maxi
Posts: 129
Incept: 2009-10-13

Lander, WY
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I called Hubby and told him about the plunge and how it probably destroyed numerous investors/traders.

He just said, "BooYah!" There was no sympathy in his voice for anyone in these markets.

It is going to be an interesting evening. I can tell that I will be painting the walls tomorrow, after he gets through this evening.

Sigh!
Genesis
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Avatars off.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Inez
Posts: 360
Incept: 2009-07-08

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Gen,
I smell a warning of doom and gloom from banks as Sen. Reid is leaning to vote 'yes' on Fed audit and breaking up banks. Today was just a sneak peek into threats to come from GS etc.
Ruffcut
Posts: 2903
Incept: 2007-07-07

Mushagain
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Goldman probably made money and was shooting a warning shot across the wall street **** boat's bow.
"Attack us, and just watch what we can do!"
There are no excuses, no mistakes, but only rath of their "doing god's work".

You are so right about confidence in the markets. But even subtle bull****, is still bull****.

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Support locally, and **** off globally!
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


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I was watching the Greek protests unfold live -- originally it was a standoff, then minor clashes turned into riots.

Right about that time, the market croaked. I figured they were probably related.

Newbtrader
Posts: 4445
Incept: 2007-08-24
Green A True American Patriot!
Bubbleville, VA
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Gen,

So you're saying PG set off the crash? It looks like a confluence of different things to me. Junk bonds sold off before PG and the market did, not to mention the FX moves. Now, I'm not saying that HFT's didn't make matters worse by possibly "going for the kill," but I'm not sure PG set it off.

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"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." -Thomas Jefferson
Pheesh
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just a little demonstration of 'who's boss' to the us government. Doin god's work and such
Schwantz
Posts: 5820
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Green
Toronto
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I watched the two-wave waterfall in EUR/JPY at 2PM and 2:45PM EST. This was no fat finger...the HFT algo prop job holding the FX together just broke, that's all. I expected the gears to slip suddenly...that's what happens when you've wound things up too tight.

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Wisc-xc
Posts: 5524
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outside chicago
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USD/JPY and EUR/USD were absolutely insane before the waterfall. That had folks trigger happy too.
Aac123
Posts: 1534
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USD/JPY didnt recover as much as the others either

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Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
Steelhead23
Posts: 2043
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Portland OR
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One gets the eery feeling that some janitor pulled a plug accidentally at around 2:45 - and saved billions, if not trillions in equity. I just makes soooo much sense to have computers making buy and sell decisions for HFT. After all, they respond in milliseconds, while most mortals would cogitate for at least a minute before dumping billions of shares into the abyss. I hope GS lost a ton. I need a drink.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Newbtrader
Posts: 4445
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Bubbleville, VA
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Schwantz, that's my take as well. Also take a look at HYG (thanks Alessandro), and you'll see it cracked BEFORE things went to hell. Question is.. was it really the HTF machines that caused the dump, or they just made it worse? I would lean towards the latter.

My question was to Karl regarding him posting the PG chart. The rumor was that a bad trade of PG set things off, which seems silly.

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"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." -Thomas Jefferson
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3595
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Farmingdale, NY
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Based on trading like this....don't be surprised if we walk in one morning and see the futures down between 10 and 20% (led by Europe). If that happens, I say they do not open the markets and they will blame the computers. They are keeping it closed for the our own protection.....

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Schwantz
Posts: 5820
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Toronto
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I was trying to buy puts between 2 and 2:45 and the premiums all blew out on me...also if you look at the vix during that time it was almost a perfect exponential growth curve...

This was no fat finger.

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Chris92346
Posts: 1316
Incept: 2009-03-25


Banned
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They are trying to comfort us by saying that it was simply a computer glitch.... nothing is actually wrong.


That is scary as HELL.


I would be much more comforted if their was a legit reason for the sell off.
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