Angela Merkel Clanks When She Walks
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-02-11 21:45
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Angela Merkel Clanks When She Walks
 

"Gee, it's all going to be ok and Germany is going to come to everyone's rescue!"

Nope.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, mounted stiff resistance tonight to any swift bailout of Greece, as a rift opened up between European capitals over how best to tackle the risks posed to the euro.

Despite a show of Franco-German unity on the crisis and the first statement from EU leaders pledging to safeguard the currency's stability, hopes on the markets of a German-led rescue plan to shore up Greece's critical public finances were dashed by Merkel, who repeatedly emphasised that Athens would need to put its own house in order and brushed aside all questions of financial support.

"See, I told you soTwice."

Someone forgot to tell the market pumpers (along with those who started buying Euros and Pounds against the dollar) that Greece is a bit player in this mess.

What 'ya gonna do about Ireland - a nation that has enough out there in bank debt to make Iceland look like a Girl Scout picnic?  Or Spain?  Portugal, which has had an actual failed bond auction already?

and

One would hope that Merkel and friends in Germany aren't really stupid enough to implement such a transfer of a peripheral nation's problem to the EU's core, but then again we have seen time and time again that "can-kicking" is the mantra of the world since this crisis began.  Rather than deal with the underlying problems - excessive leverage, naked swaps that the seller can't possibly pay, various forms of fraud and gamesmanship in securities issue and similar - governments have instead decided to lift up the corner of the carpet and sweep, time and time again.

Should the EU implement this with Greece they may indeed set a precedent that could easily destroy the European Union over the next couple of years.  Faced with Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, all of which are huge problems compared to Greece both in terms of the debt outstanding and the size of their economies Germany will find itself unable to backstop all four nations - yet it will have to, once the die is cast with Greece.

It appears that unlike Barack Obama and Ben-d-you-over-the-table Bernanke, who doesn't much care about the formalities of what's supposed to be on The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, Angela Merkel has both a brain and she clanks when she walks!

I like it, although I'm not so sure that Ms. Merkel would be so steadfast had she not the benefit of watching other fools, specifically Henry Paulson, from afar, and thus got to see that the market always calls bluffs.  She witnessed Fannie and Freddie's "Bazooka" and the non-bailout that was a bailout and then more bailout via TARP, AIG and others, and thus knows damn well that if she comes to the aid of Greece (assuming the German court system will let her) the PIIS (heh, that's a good acronym, no?), sans-Greece, will be there with hands outstretched instantly - and not by choice either.

Rather, the market will simply shift it's attention to Spain, Portugal, Ireland or all three, and place them under speculative attack until the story is repeated time and time again.

Germany simply lacks the ability to bail everyone out.

Our "officials" lacked the brainpower to recognize this even after having reality smash into their face at 450 mph in the form of a clue-by-four when Hank Paulson was so puerile as to threaten the market with his mighty "Bazooka".

He proceeded to blow off his own balls with that very bazooka just days later.

The market is bigger than any one man or any one nation and it does not suffer arrogance lightly.  Virtually everyone who has tried to tangle with it has wound up with their head between their legs after not only their head was chopped off but both arms as well.

If Ms. Merkel has learned this lesson adequately from the last three years then progress has indeed been made.  Perhaps she can put in a visit to Mr. Obama and whack him upside the head a few times, knocking some sense into that arrogant ass before he blows our nation to Hell with his belief that $1.6 trillion deficits are a "small mismatch" between spending and income - a mismatch that he largely created himself.

I wish Ms. Merkel luck dealing with her banks.  Don't think for a minute that they're not neck-deep in the sludge themselves - they are - or that somehow they're so much wiser than us in the land of beer and schnitzel - they're not.

But when it comes to the consequences of "bailout world", it appears that Angela Merkel has learned from the experience of others, and as such, she deserves - at least for today - a gold star.

We'll see if I have to revoke it tomorrow.

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User Info Angela Merkel Clanks When She Walks in forum [Market-Ticker]
Jlk
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A lot of games going on right now with the Greek CDSs, I imagine.
Jjm
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I think this "Greek fix" is all just posturing - an attempt to stall while behind the scenes they look for a solution to the bigger problems with the other countries. What that might involve is anybody's guess. Merkel knows they will only get one shot at this so whatever form it takes, they better make it count.

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Reza30
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An important point that should not be missed is how much the Europeans still hate each other.

I lived in Europe for several years and I clearly remember how much the British hated the Germans; the Irish hated the English, and the French hated everybody else. For Germany to bail out any of her European rivals and former enemies would be very unpopular indeed.

In the U.S. the situation is vastly different however. We are one nation under "Dow 10,000" and we are OK as long the beer flows; the American Idol is on, and Walmart has all that Chinese-made crap. We have the world's reserve currency and forever we can print and inflate our way out of trouble. If we can't earn a good life we can always borrow it.

Quote:
TARP 2.0: German Parliament Trying To Stop The Greece Bailout

German newspaper Handelsblatt is reporting that Germany's
parliament has concluded that many forms of financial aid for Greece would be in violation of European Union rules.

If the ECB or even another country were to "bail out' Greece or refinance its debt, it would be construed as a default according to German officials.

The default event would trigger credit default swap collateral calls and in turn, make the situation in Greece even worse.

Here's an interesting (but poorly translated quote from Handelsblatt:

An internal report of a research department of the Bundestag, held by the Handelsblatt, Moreover, it is having regard to current EU law, that Bundesregierug Greece may reach under her arms. The Parliament's legal experts warn that Berlin before a rescue package. They exclude, in its opinion not only any form of financing by the Greek budget by the ECB and national central banks. "Also, a Member State shall not be liable for the debts of the central government of another State, or advocate," write the lawyers. Explicitly states that: That's Germany was also bound.

Sounds a lot like the United States, our banks, and the first attempt to get TARP passed, no?

Sure, the "adults" in the executive branch want to make the crisis going away. But the lowly elected officials in parliament don't want to give it the rubber stamp.

Jlk
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"Jjm" wrote..
I think this "Greek fix" is all just posturing - an attempt to stall while behind the scenes they look for a solution to the bigger problems with the other countries.


I think Goldman is buying and selling CDSs as the Germans alternately encourage and dispel the notion of a bailout.
Aja
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Um - care to explain the Bloomberg headline that the EU takes out a big bazooka to dispel Greek problems
or something like that.
What are they talking about? I read the article and found no bazooka
Genesis
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That's because there isn't one Aja smiley

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Musashi
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Merkel has degrees in physics and quantum chemistry from uni's in Berlin and Leipzig. Her grandparents come from Prussia and she was raised in East Germany.

You can bet on two things, she understands math and still remembers how to play hardball.
Soar07
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So how long til I can buy the Angela Merkel Deutschmark Ultra Fund??

It will be a nice complement to DRR.


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Mortgageguymn
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Technically, I think Austria is the land of schnitzel. Germany is the land of wurst. But Angela has a big wurst in her dirndl.
Trader_kid
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Quote:
Our "officials" lacked the brainpower to recognize this even after having reality smash into their face at 450 mph in the form of a clue-by-four after Hank Paulson was so puerile as to threaten the market with his mighty "Bazooka".

He proceeded to blow off his own balls with that very bazooka just days later.

HAHAHAHAHA

oh man that is great.

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Etz
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I bet they do clank smiley

inline

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Steelhead23
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As the U.S. decends into Weimar, Merkel behaves like Harry Dexter White (U.S. envoy at Bretton Woods conference, 1944). May the cool heads prevail.

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Nightowl
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You mean there is an educated grown-up in charge? Go tell em what tIme it is Angela!

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Emb145
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Quote:
Technically, I think Austria is the land of schnitzel. Germany is the land of wurst. But Angela has a big wurst in her dirndl.

smiley

Quote:

I lived in Europe for several years and I clearly remember how much the British hated the Germans; the Irish hated the English, and the French hated everybody else.


smiley

I love this place.
Xennady
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The cracks in the New World Order just keep getting bigger and bigger.

It's one thing to build a huge transnational bureaucracy to rule Europe when you can bribe people to go along with endless free money.

It's another thing to keep that together when you run out of other peoples' money to hand out.

How is the EU going to get Greece to do what they're told when they stop sending money? Send frowny frowns their way? Invade? Bwahaha!

It seems to me that this is the beginning of the end of the EU.

Even if they somehow manage to arrange a bailout of Greece they can't bail everyone out- and those countries cut off from the free money will start to look out for #1 immediately.

No matter what the Lisbon treaty says.
Emb145
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Treaties and laws are meaningless unless there is a stick to enforce them. The "EU" is really just a bunch of stacks of paper with some gooberment-type bureaucraps in Brussels.

If the Germans and French decide that they are better off on their own again, with their own currencies, then there won't be an EU anymore, at least not in the present form. Vacations in Griechenland will become really cheap then.

Who's gonna tell them any different?

(Hint: Rhymes with 'nobody')
Eleua
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I was discussing this with my dad and told him that Merkel told the Greeks to FOAD, in a German kind of way.

He said, "They invaded?"

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Emb145
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Geez...you invade ONE country and people label you for life.

/sarcasm off
Eleua
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Could someone please tell me how the Euro is going to replace the Yankee Lira as the world's reserve currency? I could easily expend enough calories laughing as I would running a sub-40 10K.

Please, someone...anyone...Luvs?

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http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx
"Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin
"Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin
Etz
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We need a pump-kangaroo icon.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Emb145
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E,

US & Co. decide to invade Iran. China & Russia*****ed. Movement towards trading oil in Euros, which reaches critical mass due to a surge in anti-yankee sentiment.

I don't think it'll happen at all, but I can't be convinced that the US peso will remain the globe's reserve currency. We're an over-stretched, has-been of a nation; an empire, crumbling from within. That doesn't bode well for our peso.
Mikek31
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I was wondering if anyone here knows how the Greeks feel about their situation. I know the unions have been getting sweetheart deals and are overcompensated to the detriment of the private sector, but how do they feel about their banks?

I imagine that a lot of these people on strike have racked up a lot of debt, thus the strong reaction to pay/benefits cuts. I mean, is it just the sheer size and strength of these unions that enable workers to strike so easily, or is it a real political/banking backlash? I'm having a hard time with the simple conclusion that all these Greeks are just doing this because of a sense of entitlement. It's too shortsighted; I'm hoping there's something more to this.

As far as Ireland goes, well, a lot of them just packed up their bags and left to go elsewhere. Bloomberg calls that "success".

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Phantomace
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Quote:
I was discussing this with my dad and told him that Merkel told the Greeks to FOAD, in a German kind of way.

He said, "They invaded?"

Oh man, that is ****ing CLASSIC!
smiley

(BTW, Eleua, you now owe me a 19" monitor, a keyboard and mouse... And a fresh glass of Syrah)

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Mannfm11
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I wouldn't bet my ass they are going to start taking Euros and despise dollars any time soon. You are underestimating the US for one. Second, credit economies don't hyperinflate, but that is beside the point.

The points here are many. For one, Greece appears to be a country of entitled unions who think they can get someone else to pay the bill for their pay raises. Second, it is Greece and not Germany and both signed that unworkable monetary union that tied them to the Eurobank under the conditions that both control their spending. The money in both countries is the same, so it isn't like we have run away inflation in Greece and no inflation in Germany. Instead we have a party in one country and business in another. I don't believe Germany has the authority to demand how Greece solves its internal problems, as that would lead to more problems. A bailout would merely tell the strikers in Greece and as far as that goes in France as well that all they have to do is cry and the Germans will see to it they don't go down with the ship. I don't believe the Greeks need to starve, but before anything is done, they need to put their house in order. The unions either need to look at the fact they are going to have layoffs or they are going to take pay cuts. The country is bordering on emergency and emergency runs according to the rule of necessity, not the rule of law, as there are laws for necessity. The first one is that contracts are no longer contracts, so the government doesn't have to pay strikers a penny. Union contracts can be voided, as in a bankruptcy.

The government of Greece needs to realize that they are going to pay a premium to continue as they are and the Germans aren't coming to their aid. If we are talking about a poor economy, that is one thing. If we are talking about a game of grab and party, that is another. Germany can afford to bail Greece out, but I don't believe they can tell Greece what to do and if that is the case, the party will continue.

The US has its own problems, but roughly 70% of the US economy not including the finacial side is a pass fail system. We are dealing with a natural disaster, something it appears society falls into about every 70 years as many decide the rules of finance and math don't apply to them. The big gripe here and that includes myself is that the one group most responsible for the sum of financial problems in the US were the group bailed out and they didn't just happen to fail, but in truth assassinated the economy itself then had a medal pinned on their chest. Some of what Paulson did was right on, but when the effect of all of it was to bail out his cronies and set them up to profit in attempting to blow an even bigger and more certain to fail bubble puts him on my **** list. Geithner, who worked behind the scenes, gets on my sewer sludge list, which is **** that has settled to the bottom of the pit. Authorities that turn their heads to blatant violations of law as in the case of FRB NY official and ex GS head Friedman, who violated the insider trader laws with his purchase of GS stock are even farther down the pole, maybe feedlot sludge.

George Washington was the richest man in the US from what I understand. He put it all on the line to pursue a vision and a principal. When you value what you have more than you value the entire field of freedom and the principal of all men being endowed with rights of equality, then you will become a slave or a serf. The American people are headed for serfdom as sure I type these words if the status quo continues.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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