Fraudie/Phoney MBS And More Lies From Congress
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-11-25 09:09
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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Fraudie/Phoney MBS And More Lies From Congress
 

Heh Ben, how's that sphincter (pick which one) feel about now?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N), shrunk its gross mortgage portfolio by an annual rate of about 28 percent in October and delinquencies on loans it guarantees rose sharply in September, the largest U.S. home funding company said on Tuesday.

The key in the story is that the single-family "serious" delinquency rate (that is, 90+ days behind - in the "forget it, they're hosed" bucket) is now 4.72% of the entire portfolio, where a year ago it was 1.72%.

That's 275% of the previous rate.

Where's the MBS portfolio going?  Fannie isn't running it down, you know.

Oh no - those MBS are going right onto The Federal Reserve's balance sheet through "outright purchases" - that is, monetization.

Unlike a loan, which is recourse and can be "put back", these can't.  They're owned by The Federal Reserve, which printed up new money (debasing the currency) to purchase an "asset" of questionable (or worse) quality.

The perversity of The Fed's "purchase" program is that it has dramatically boosted the price of these "securities", even as their quality has gone into the toilet.

The outcome of this should not have been in question, of course - you can always drive up the "price" of something by intentionally overpaying for some of that thing.  The wise owner of said "asset" will immediately sell it to you, of course, detecting that you are willing to overpay on purpose.

The perversity of such a "program", however, is that it destroys the market.  The claim is that such "quantitative easing" is in some way "supportive" of the market for these securities.  Nothing could be further from the truth - what has instead happened is that private demand has disappeared as The Fed has been paying more for them than the market price - and as a consequence anyone who might have been a buyer has immediately turned into a seller instead.  Worse, the cost of funding new securities has become unattractive for Fannie and Freddie. 

Net-on-net the risk of default is being transferred to you as The Fed, if they have taken in so-called "good securities" by intentionally overpaying for toilet paper their actions amount to nothing more than raw printing of money.

The dollar is reacting to this, along with the fact that the so-called "independent" Central Bank has effectively correlated its actions with Treasury, which instantly issued more than $1 trillion in new debt right into its "low interest rate" environment and "Quantitative Easing" program.

Reality is this:

The housing market's performance is not improving - it continues to deteriorate, with loan performance deteriorating, not stabilizing.

Virtually all of the Fannie/Freddie paper that is "Seriously Delinquent" will foreclose.  Nobody 90+ delinquent (statistically) cures - those are "hard" defaults that are either in foreclosure or will be in foreclosure.

The Fed will, by the end of the first quarter of 2010, own 20% or more of this paper - and it intentionally overpaid.  The losses will be real, they will be in the tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars, and you will eat it via devaluation of the currency and deterioration of your living standard - even if you were prudent.

There is no exit from this policy.  Should The Fed dump the MBS paper on the market the price would collapse.  Should they not and run it off the value will collapse.  Either way the losses are real and will be absorbed - by you.

"Independent" Central Bank eh?  Contemplate the wisdom of a so-called "independent" central bank having the right to levy a tax on all Americans - because that's what they're doing, in point of fact, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Oh, and to Darrell Issa, who made the comment to a constituent when challenged that HR.3221 of 2008 provided a "full faith and credit" guarantee to Fannie and Freddie, thus making their MBS purchase-eligible by The Fed: That was a lie sir.

HR.3221 did no such thing.  It in fact authorized but did not require the purchase of MBS and Debt Instruments by Treasury, to wit (Sec 1117, P30)

‘‘(A) General Authority - In addition to the authority under subsection (c) of this section, the Secretary of the Treasury is authorized to purchase any obligations and other securities issued by the corporation under any section of this Act, on such terms and conditions as the Secretary may determine and in such amounts as the Secretary may determine. Nothing in this subsection requires the corporation to issue obligations or securities to the Secretary without mutual agreement between the Secretary and the corporation.

That's crystal clear.  TREASURY is authorized to buy an unlimited amount of Fannie and Freddie paper - either MBS or outright debt issue.  But nowhere in this act is Treasury required to do so in satisfaction of debt - that is, nowhere is the implied Fannie and Freddie guarantee modified to an explicit full faith and credit guarantee issued by The Federal Government.

Further, Fannie filed a 10Q effective as of September 30th of this year in which it stated ON THE FIRST PAGE:

Although we are a corporation chartered by the U.S. Congress, and although our conservator is a U.S. government agency and Treasury owns our senior preferred stock and a warrant to purchase our common stock, the U.S. government does not guarantee, directly or indirectly, our securities or other obligations.

End of discussion Mr. Issa.  Fannie issued that 10Q as a document filed with the SEC by a firm that has publicly-traded capital stock.  Not only does the general rubric of fraud apply should they make a knowingly-false claim, SarBox provides that such documents are specifically attested to as true and correct by the officers of the corporation responsible for said filing.

The reason that Treasury isn't buying these securities, and The Fed is doing so (and in my opinion illegally doing so) is quite simple: If Treasury were to buy these securities it would have to issue Treasury Debt to fund the purchases.  This would lay bare on the table the fact that The Federal Government is not running a $1 trillion annual deficit it is in fact running a $2 trillion annual deficit, and the consequence of that recognition by the market would likely be the instantaneous collapse of Treasury Bond prices with a commensurate rocket shot in demanded coupon

This would force fiscal discipline on The United States Government - a reality you and the rest of Congress, along with Treasury, refuse to face.

This sort of cock-and-bull game of outright lies, which you used to dodge a legitimate question from a constituent at a charity event related to why Congress is allowing The Federal Reserve to buy MBS and Debt that lacks the REQUIRED full faith and credit guarantee, is outrageous.

You should be ashamed of yourself Darrell.  I had a much higher opinion of you before you pulled that crap, but it takes only one intentional act of deception to destroy my formerly-high opinion of you.

If you have a cite to an explicit full-faith-and credit guarantee in the law you claimed provided for it, fax it to me and I'll be happy to retract this in public.  Until then it stands: your intentional deception, along with that of The Fed and Treasury, is designed to cover up the fact that we're not running a $1 trillion annual deficit, it is in fact double that and Congress, Treasury and The Fed all know that should this become apparent to the market the result will be an instantaneous detonation of the government's ability to fund its operation on anything approaching reasonable terms. 

Quite frankly, we deserve exactly that outcome given the outrageous actions taken by both the previous and current administrations along with the willing handmaiden games played by both The Fed and Congress, and I hope we get it - and soon.

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User Info Fraudie/Phoney MBS And More Lies From Congress in forum [Market-Ticker]
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3587
Incept: 2008-08-19

Farmingdale, NY
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Quote:
Quite frankly, we deserve exactly that outcome given the outrageous actions taken by both the previous and current administrations along with the willing handmaiden games played by both The Fed and Congress, and I hope we get it - and soon.


Gen: Please don't hold your breath on this. Nothing of the sort will happen, although it might be discussed...and even seriously. When it comes down to it, the only option they have is to continue all the extend and pretend games they have been playing for some time now.

Enjoy you Thanksgiving and the time with the family...Take a break from the tickers....unless of course....something REALLY warrants it.


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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Pensicostreet
Posts: 1073
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
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Man I'm addicted to following these stories but I don't know if I should healthwise, I am really started to get boiling mad to the point its affecting my everyday living. These people think they are some kind of royalty destroying people's wealth. They never ever look at unintended consequences, or maybe they do and just don't give a crap.

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We are all Greece now.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13907
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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The best we can all do here is educate people. I try hard to get more people to come here. Hopefully - we can get TF 'viewership' up Yoy. I don't know what else to do at this point.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Lucky1
Posts: 2019
Incept: 2009-08-05
Gold
Pittsburgh
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Quote:
The dollar is reacting to this, along with the fact that the so-called "independent" Central Bank has effectively correlated its actions with Treasury, which instantly issued more than $1 trillion in new debt right into its "low interest rate" environment and "Quantitative Easing" program.


The dollar is reacting all right - this morning it's showing a major plummet all the way down past 74.5 at one point - yikes!

Gen: I agree with Curb and Pensi - healthwise and mood-wise this can really take a toll - I am 'extra grouchy' and have been for the past year. Try to take the next 4 days 'off' without posting - and start fresh on Monday - we need you around as our *humble*, intrepid financial reporter for the long haul.

I get bits and pieces of what I get here from various places - but no one out there is connecting all the dots other than here, IMHO. You have already saved my family and I countless $ in investment losses not incurred.

Enjoy Thanksgiving - just in case it's the last one as we've known it...

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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
Lastchance
Posts: 1276
Incept: 2008-11-19

Las Vegas
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"This would force fiscal discipline on The United States Government - a reality you and the rest of Congress, along with Treasury, refuse to face."

That pretty much covers it. Maybe it's just me, but REAL fiscal discipline would cause a collapse and likely some sort of revolt. Let's just say that is true. Well, if I was them, I would also "refuse to face" that POSSIBLE outcome. Kicking the can is much easier. Now that isn't really meant to be funny, but it is true.

I can tie this back into previous Tickers that use the drunk analogy. The wise thing to do to someone drinking 1000ml of whiskey a day is total detox. Probably quite painful in the short term. But it seems that our elected folks would rather see how the patient does at 950ml a day, while profiting from the sale of the whiskey to the patient. Just an analogy.

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"Now we have a thousand dollar television that has nothing on it" Karl Denniger re: speech 5/24/10
Value = priceless. I can't help it. Too funny.
Glasshammer
Posts: 260
Incept: 2009-09-02

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So let me get this strait,

I (a taxpayer) am paying for garbage (MBS) at double the cost of garbage (which should be zero dollars because...its garbage) in order to keep the garbage dump (housing market) from being labeled a dump(don't mind the smell folks). All of this is done in order to fill the dump (housing market) with nice (expensive) garbage and raise the value of the dump (housing market) because now it contains nice garbage(come and see our expensive garbage).

The nice garbage (overvalued MBS) still smells and weighs the same as regular garbage (MBS) but the owner of the dump (the FED) has convinced me that the smell and weight have changed due to paying more for the garbage(money is magical you know).

Do I have that right KD?
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Pretty much yeah :)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Kidhorn
Posts: 91
Incept: 2009-08-11

Rockville, MD
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It's not just the US gov't. It's all the major governments. They're all in the same hole and are going to print their way out of it. The Europeans will likely be the last to do so since, I believe, they tend to be more principled than Americans or Asians. That's why the Euro is doing well. At least for now it is.

I get why bank equity is doing well. As are commodities. What I don't understand is why the broader market is doing well. Take for instance Best Buy. Everything they sell is discretionary and is imported. High unemployment and a low dollar should be killing them, but their stock price keeps going up.
Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

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Doesn't matter what they do on the decks of the Titanic. The ship is going down. Over 14 percent of 57 million mortgages are late or in foreclosure. 25 percent of the mortgages in Florida are late or in foreclosure. Even with the delays of dealing with late mortgages, over 700,000 mortgages go into foreclosure a quarter.

When they are through devaluing the dollar, the holders of US treasuries can buy 60 million houses in America, or more if the houses decline in dollar value in the interim. ...
Glasshammer
Posts: 260
Incept: 2009-09-02

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KD,

I will just start equating taxes to getting robbed but I get to see what the thief spends it on. Apparently, the thief throws my money into a fire for his amusement(however he is kind enough to tell me about it). I thought he would have used the money to buy something nice for himself.
Jjm
Posts: 187
Incept: 2009-11-10

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Tilting at windmills folks. The rally from the March lows continues, ZIRP is the policy for the next year or two, and the Fed will take handwritten IOUs as collateral. Rant all you like but it's the New Normal.

Does anyone remember the old adage "Don't fight the Fed"?

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"In a mania, all investments are at the mercy of the greater fool. As in: if you can’t find one, you’re it."
-- Alex Daley

Onchaos
Posts: 141
Incept: 2008-10-09

Virginia
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Nothing good's going to come out of this. The trick will be holding on to our sovereignty at the end of the day.

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Freedom is chaos - give it to me anyway!
Jhonab
Posts: 301
Incept: 2009-03-24
Green
Denmark
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Kidhorn and Jjm -

yes, this is the new normal worldwide. In short: world economy will have government spending as the only driver for many years to come, and they're going to use the anthropogenic warming meme as the vehicle to spew money all over. Eventually the coming disaster will be used as an excuse to print money, because we have to do something, and imploding economies don't matter if the globe is going to explode anyway and bla bla bla ...
As few have noticed, Joseph Stiglitz chaired a committe - The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress - under French government authorization that was tasked with inventing a new way to measure BNP, counting how people feel and stuff like that. This will somehow be formalized in coming years.
I'm pretty sure that an American health care reform with universal coverage would be counted as an asset in this line of thinking.

The report is here: http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/docu....

Andrew123
Posts: 175
Incept: 2009-07-05
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California
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I am very dissapointed in Issa. I thought he was one of the good ones. Karl, is there anyone in Congress who is standing up to this (not just insisting on an audit, but actully challenging the purchase of MBS)? I know Giethner is comming under pressure, but I suspect it is easy for congressmen to complain about bailing out Goldman Sachs and not doing anything to directly creat jobs. Those are concepts they can understand. In contrast, it takes more than 10 minutes to understand the irresponsible and possibly illegal actions of the Fed. It also takes more than 10 minutes to understand the effect this has on the dollar, and the problems that creates. The same Congressmen who give Bernanke credit for "saving the economy" and boosting the stockmarket (and most Congressmen think those are good things) ignore his complicity in creating the problems in the first place. I know that there are a few Representatives that maybe sort of get it, but are there any Senators? Karl, there is no need to name names, but it would sure make me and I suspect other posters feel a little bit better if you could confirm that at least one Senator gets it and is mad enough to do something about it (something more than just cosonser the Audit the Fed bill. Something like challenging Bernanke on these points and refusing to vote to reconfirm him).
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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I haven't seen so as of yet Andrew, but I have a TICKER aimed at The Senate being polished off now.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Frat
Posts: 1934
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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The dollar's official low from this morning was 74.399 ... How much more abuse can it take? What's the threshold where it self-destructs? I honestly don't know what to do at this point. My credit card company stupidly still has my limit at $22k ... I'm half-tempted to buy gold and food storage with the balance and tell them to f*** off when the billl comes. I'm sure, were the roles reversed, they'd have ZERO worry about screwing me sideways.

I still have those things called standards, morals and principles though dammit! I guess it was just how I was raised. I took on the debt and feel I'm obligated to pay it off - crazy, huh?

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Ribbit
Posts: 1780
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Wales, UK
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Quote:
Kidhorn:"It's not just the US gov't. It's all the major governments. They're all in the same hole and are going to print their way out of it. The Europeans will likely be the last to do so since, I believe, they tend to be more principled than Americans or Asians. That's why the Euro is doing well. At least for now it is."


The problem is, things in the EU only appear that way, because the ECB, after throwing somewhere around 1 trillion euros at the problem in the early months of the crisis (say from roughly August 07 to March 08?), then decided on secret bailouts after.

Given the ongoing scale of 'difficulties' since, it would be hard to imagine that those initial numbers are not now 'dwarfed'?

Of course, the subsequent financial action being secret, who can say what the real situation is really like now, other than 'likely much worse'?

Personally, I am convinced that things are much worse in the Eurozone, than they are for example on Wall St., given the decades of financial corruption and criminality (for example as confirmed with what came out over Frankfurts attempt to take over the LSE, so Frankfurt could bail itself out of its mess).

I would dearly love to be convinced otherwise, but my long chat with a German businessman at Calais in mid-August 09, who was 'exiting the EU stage left, as fast as possible' and headed for Canada, didn't do anything to reassure me.

Knowing quite a few German Nationals that have been getting their (not insubstantial) money out of the EU for quite a few years now (from the early 90's on), and as exemplified perhaps by Don Johnson 'doing someone a favour' with their $8 billion of funds http://www.neoflux.com/archive/data/2003.... (dated March 12, 2003), yet again runs counter to any 'reassuring' aspects.

Enough people seem to have been able to 'peer under the rug' at what is going on, over what is now a substantial number of years, and it seems fair to say, they don't like what they are looking at. Not one bit they don't.

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If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now.
Bustedbuck69
Posts: 479
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Pensicostreet wrote:

Quote:
Man I'm addicted to following these stories but I don't know if I should healthwise, I am really started to get boiling mad to the point its affecting my everyday living. These people think they are some kind of royalty destroying people's wealth. They never ever look at unintended consequences, or maybe they do and just don't give a crap.[


I am in total agreement. Anger, fear, frustration, and anxiety just another consequence of the pernicious mismanagement by the leadership.

The sequence of outcomes:

Penury---psychological/emotional strain---physical health problems, all in a negative feedback loop. Title of this book by the boyz, "How to take down a great country in less than 300 years."

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"---the politicians---they think the laws of mathematics are suggestions." K. Denninger

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand exponential function." Al Bartlett
Krzelune
Posts: 5513
Incept: 2007-10-08
Green
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I'm amazed at the outright lack of understanding of cosequences to artificially jacking around with the supply and demand process. They must think they are so special that reality doesn't apply to them.

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The desire of millions, the inconvenience of millions, the suffering of millions, the death of millions, does not concern them because of the evolutionary humanist lens they peer through.
Andrew123
Posts: 175
Incept: 2009-07-05
Green
California
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Karl, I think you might want to include actual questions and follow ups for the Senators (I assume you will be faxing the ticker out). If it is something they can actually use in their hearing, they might be more inclined to read and pay attention to it. If a staffer reads it and sees it is something they can actually give (or more likely copy/paraphrase and claim authorship of) to their Senator to help him prepare, it is more likly to get through.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Andrew, it is.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Signas
Posts: 909
Incept: 2007-06-26

Reno
Banned
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"collapse of Treasury Bond prices with a commensurate rocket shot in demanded coupon."

Watch for the Chinese buying up all the concrete production in USSA to prevent the above quote.

Obtuse I know but it coming.

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Carbon Credits "FOR SALE" Bring a wheelbarrow full of money!! I really liked the people that spent $58,000 to earn a $21.50 Carbon Credit

Andrew123
Posts: 175
Incept: 2009-07-05
Green
California
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Karl, thanks, and good luck to all of us.
Blurtman
Posts: 563
Incept: 2009-01-24


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The Fed is unabashedly trying to inflate a real estate bubble, an activity that would be insane enough in a normal employment environment, but is absolutely crazy with today's unemployment rates.

Bernanke is either deluded, incompetent, desperate, flailing away at straws or all of the above.

It was a fatal flaw to not resolve the insolvent banks. They are now a black hole, sucking down liquidity, and holding it tight. They are the trap in "liquidity trap."
Inline

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I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
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