The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-05-21 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Education , 580 references
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I have tried to warn young people and their parents.

Not only do they not want to hear it, they make excuses -- like "oh, I can work for the government for 10 years and no matter how much I rack up in loans they'll forgive it."

That appears to be going away:

Trump is making good on Republican campaign promises to get government out of the business of student lending, and recently lifted limits on fees debt collectors can charge some defaulted borrowers. The Washington Post has reported he will propose major changes to loan repayment in his forthcoming budget, including eliminating a program that erases student debt for public-sector workers after 10 years of payments.

As I said several years ago in this column: If you in any way encourage or enable your young adult to take on this ball and chain, given that there is no way they have the life experience to understand what they're agreeing to in full and how badly they can and will get ****ed you deserve to be eaten by your progeny if they get screwed as a consequence -- and they're at least somewhat likely to have exactly that happen.

The only answer to the high college cost problem is to remove all government supports and "enhanced" treatment of such loans so they are fully able to be discharged in a bankruptcy just like any other consumer or business loan.

That would instantly collapse the cost of college because nobody in their right mind would lend someone $100,000 to get a degree in social services or similar.  Ever.  But no!  Instead of collapsing the cost of college by 80% you keep arguing for more and more "loan access" instead.

Assume the position and lube up -- oh, and if you own a house today and are expecting to sell it to a millennial some day?  Forget it -- they won't have any money or credit to buy it with which means that even if you have either no children or they didn't get screwed like this you still have every reason to demand that the right thing be done and if you don't then you deserve the outcome when it occurs.


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2017-05-19 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 366 references
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Robert Mueller has been named special prosecutor for the "Russia investigation" with regard to Trump's campaign.

Mueller, a former FBI head and federal prosecutor, is well-respected by both sides of the aisle -- and with reasonably good cause.  I'm aware of no material accusations of misconduct during his tenure and he has a reputation for being honest -- and tough.  He has also worked with Comey before -- extensively.  The conflict of interest issue is obvious -- and, from the point of view of the DOJ, irrelevant.  You take from that whatever you wish.

In my view of events this is generally good in that it will lead to a dispositive outcome.  If, as Trump asserts, there were no untoward actions by his campaign, his staff and those close to him during the campaign or afterward with regard to Russia then the Democrat narrative will be demolished and laid rest in a pile of ash.

However, if there is evidence of obstruction or worse, actual collusion of some sort with the Russians then all Hell is going to break loose.

The problem for those who are preening for a "Trump Trade" is that either outcome leaves such a trump-trade expectation in the dustbin.

Let's assume that the now-being-repeated video that "there was no obstruction" proves up.  So what? The Democrats are not going to let this go and will argue they've been railroaded.  Now what?  Anything that has to go through regular order is not going to happen and remember that due to how the process works under reconciliation you have to get the AHCA, or whatever it turns into in the Senate, through before you take up taxes since you can't score the tax bill otherwise.

If there was collusion, on the other hand, then Trump is burnt toast and it makes zero difference who in his campaign did the colluding.  Whether it was him or anyone else in his campaign if there's any sort of fire to go with the smoke his administration is finished in practical terms even if they don't impeach him (and the Republicans won't, by the way, so you can forget about that.)

Finally either way the House is likely to flip Democrat in 2018.  This is just math; the party in power nearly always loses seats and frequently loses the majority after the first two years of a new administration where the Presidency changes hands.  The day that happens you can forget about passing anything having to do with actual tax cuts and I remind you that the 2018 mid-term campaigning is due to start pretty much as soon as Congress comes back from summer recess!

If you think there will be tax reform given the present environment you need to get the crack pipe out of your mouth as you are a drug-addled fool.  Trump had the opportunity to get this done, and to fix health care (for real; see my proposal to the top right) but he simply does not have the luxury of time into a midterm election in which he is nearly-certain to lose seats in the House and probably will lose the House majority.

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2017-05-18 09:35 by Karl Denninger
in Product Reviews , 129 references
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Read the original, if you haven't...

Having now taken this on a decent backcountry hike, I have an update!

Short version: It's everything I expected it to be in actual use.

There were a couple of surprises.  One of them is workflow with the (still) product; if you want to shoot RAW (I always do) then you have a workflow issue to deal with, because as with other models of cameras it's new enough that you wind up having to upgrade your process software.  This is somewhat of a pain in the ass; I had Lightroom 5 and have been happy with it, eschewing the $80 cost of upgrading to 6.  Well, that's fine but no lens correction data for the new kit lens is in there nor will Lightroom 5 read the .CR2 files directly, and one of the "alternative" ways of dealing with that (convert all to DNG) works fine for reading but does nothing for the lens corrections.  Did I mention you want them if you're working in RAW format?  Grrr......

The other alternative is to use Canon's DPP package, which is no longer on a disk in the package -- you need to download it, and convert to TIFFs.  That's an acceptable alternative (since it's lossless.)  Just be aware that you need to rework process stuff.  Oh, and be aware -- converting to 16-bit TIFFs is going to make for explosive file size increases from the original .CR2, but converting to 8 bit throws away a lot of what the sensor can capture and yes, I can see it INSTANTLY in a side-by-side -- so don't do 8 bit.

You choose -- there's no way around paying either for software or in disk space if you use the Canon "included" option.  Just sayin'....

I have a "Capture Pro" clip that I mounted on my left backpack chest strap, and the camera carries very nicely there. My "official" use for that thing is on my belt when shooting with a big dSLR where I need somewhere to clip a second camera if I have two with me for some reason -- trying to clip off 4lbs (5d3 + an L lens) on your backpack chest strap is a bad idea for balance and comfort reasons, but with this little guy it's fantastic.  I never knew it was there from a comfort perspective, but when you want to grab it there it is.  Having brought my 5d3 hiking with me in the past which has always been a miserable experience the difference is dramatic -- 90% of the capability for a setup that has no material impact on your comfort is a big deal.

There was no time that I really missed the OVF and shooting with the screen was a breeze.  I took a bit of video footage as well (which you'll see some of soon) and the camera acquitted itself very well in that regard.  The two-factor IS (sensor + lens) made handheld video practical, which was a decent and pleasant surprise.  If there was one complaint it's that the internal mic for video use has a rather interesting tonal quality change with distance -- you'll see what I mean by that when I put the footage up.  As is usually the case an external mic of some sort is a darn good idea for video but it's not practical in this sort of use case, so there you have it.

In short while yes, you can use your cellphone camera for such picture taking you'll never get this sort of qualitative output from a cell camera, no matter what it is, compared against something like this.  There were a couple of times I wished I had the second, ultra-wide lens with me (I didn't) but the kit lens acquitted itself exceedingly well all things considered.  There were a couple of times I wanted some longer glass with me (a few soaring bird shots there was just no way to get without the reach) but would I pay the mass penalty to have it with me on a hike like this?  Nope.

Here's just one small example.... out of a whole lot of shooting that was done.  I didn't have an ND filter with me and this was shot hand-held as well -- just try to get the shutter speed slow enough to get some of the "motion blur" in the water at a waterfall with your cellphone when you can't control aperture.  That ain't gonna happen folks so..... yeah.  I would have liked an 3 or 4-stop ND filter to get even more of it, and I did have a small tripod with me, but without the ND it was pointless since I couldn't get the shutter speed low enough to get the maximum effect.  Still.... note that these are not retouched at all; they're exactly "as-shot" out of the camera other than resolution reduction for the web (and no, you can't have the originals smiley)

Overall my view on the setup for this use?

Winner winner chicken dinner -- in a big way.

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2017-05-17 16:12 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 206 references
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Might want to read this one again.... while you still can.

Today was pretty impressive today in terms of points... not quite the -200 Naz we got when it all went to Hell back then, but.....

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2017-05-17 12:25 by Karl Denninger
in Other Voices , 172 references
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Read and watch here, specifically @16:30

A lot of this has been hashed out before, but I do like it.

PS: He thinks Trump is done unless he takes material action -- just as I have put forward.

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